Payne Points of Wealth

2026 Market Shock: Adam Johnson Predicts a 20% Drop and a Massive Rally?

In this week’s episode, we sit down with Adam Johnson, Portfolio Manager of the Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund and author of the widely followed Bullseye Brief. Adam brings his signature 1980’s Wall St. energy as we dive deep into current market dynamics, the power (and pitfalls) of short sellers, the AI productivity boom, inflation surprises, and what investors should brace for in 2026.

We kick things off with Adam sharing some of his biggest surprises from the past year—including why several of his high‑conviction names stalled out despite strong fundamentals. From Toast to SMCI, Adam breaks down how aggressive short-selling and the removal of the SEC’s old “uptick rule” have reshaped market behavior in the age of algorithmic trading.

From there, we zoom out to the macro landscape:

• Why falling oil prices were the real inflation antidote in 2025
• How AI is already creating meaningful productivity gains
• Why profit margins remain at historic highs despite tariffs, geopolitical tension, & political chaos
• And why, even after a massive run, the AI trade may only be in a consolidation phase—not the end of the story

Then we look ahead. Adam reveals his two biggest predictions for 2026:

1. A market that climbs far higher than anyone expects thanks to accelerating earnings and a surprisingly strong U.S. economy.

2. A political “blue wave” scare in Q2 that could spark a sudden 20% pullback—only to set up an even more powerful rally as spending ramps up.

We also get into:

• Whether oil is headed for the low $50s—and why that could be wildly bullish
• The “everything rally” and where value, growth, international, and commodities fit in now
• Why investor sentiment still isn’t too hot… and why that matters
• The biggest real risks no one is talking about
• How to stay disciplined when the market tries to shake you out

Finally, Adam shares the moment he knew he’d fully matured as a portfolio manager—and why long-term conviction is the ultimate superpower in the face of noise.

This is one of our most wide-ranging, high-energy conversations of the year. If you care about where markets are headed—and how to position for the year ahead—you don’t want to miss it.

Building Tech for the 42 Million Americans Silicon Valley Forgot

In this inspiring episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan sits down with Jimmy Chen—founder and CEO of Propel, the groundbreaking fintech company modernizing America’s social safety net and serving millions of low‑income families each month.

Jimmy shares his remarkable journey from arriving in Kansas City as a four‑year‑old immigrant from China with parents who had just $200, to becoming a Stanford graduate, early product manager at LinkedIn and Facebook, and ultimately the creator of one of the most impactful social‑good tech companies in the country.

You’ll hear:

• How Jimmy’s childhood shaped his relationship with money, scarcity, and grit—including his early “entrepreneurial” idea to sell his toys to avoid being a burden on his family

 

• His realization that Silicon Valley was building tech for people like themselves, not for the millions relying on programs like SNAP.

 

• The company’s 11‑year journey—from 60 investor rejections and a $12,000 Kickstarter, to raise $90 million from top VCs and investors like Serena Williams and Kevin Durant.

 

• Why Jimmy hires self-reliance, resilience, and at least one successful —not pedigree.

 

• The massive role AI now plays in Propel’s product, customer support, and internal operations.

 

• What he believes the future of education, work, and technology will look like in an AI‑driven world.

Jimmy also opens up about the “chip on his shoulder” to succeed, his father’s work ethic, why frugality helped and hindered him, and the music that shaped him as a kid, navigating life in a new culture.

This is a powerful story of ambition and purpose—proof that game‑changing ideas don’t just come from Silicon Valley, but from childhood uncertainty and a deep commitment to help those less fortunate in our country.

 

Tune in for a conversation that’s heartfelt, eye‑opening, and packed with wisdom for entrepreneurs, parents, and anyone navigating big decisions about money, purpose, and impact

From Tom Ford to Global Style Icon: The Rise of Aleks Musika | Ep#229

In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan and Chris Payne sit down with Aleks Musika — renowned menswear designer and Co‑Founder of luxury label Musika New York. Aleks shares how a childhood fascination with style set him on a path that led from working in retail to joining the Tom Ford Made-to-Measure program, where he honed the craftsmanship and eye for detail that would shape his career.

Aleks walks us through how he built his brand from the ground up, transforming an Instagram fashion blog into one of the fastest‑growing bespoke menswear houses in the world. Today, Musika New York is recognized for its bold, modern tailoring and has dressed major celebrities and athletes — including Jay‑Z, Stephen Curry, Kevin Hart, Michael B. Jordan, and Lewis Hamilton.

From leaving Miami to build his company in New York, to creating custom pieces for high‑profile clients, Aleks reveals the grit, creativity, and relentless drive behind his success.

If you’re curious about entrepreneurship, fashion, branding, or the mindset it takes to break into a competitive industry, this is a must‑listen conversation.

Markets were great in 2025—but that may be the problem.

2025 was a stellar year for investors—but will the same playbook work in 2026?

In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan Payne, Bob, Chris, and special guest Aaron Dessen kick off the new year by reflecting on an unexpected, across‑the‑board winning year in markets—and then pivot to what really matters now: what could derail your portfolio in 2026.

The team breaks down 5 key hurdles investors must watch in the coming year, including geopolitical shocks, Fed rate cuts, the dangers of sitting in cash, speculative “casino‑like” market behavior, and the growing risk of chasing last year’s returns. From surprise upside volatility during global conflicts to why money markets are not a long‑term solution, this episode challenges many of today’s popular investing assumptions.

You’ll also hear a candid discussion on:

• Why no one—not even experts—can reliably predict markets
• The hidden risks of FOMO in late‑stage bull markets
• Whether gold, silver, and commodities still belong in portfolios after a big run
• The difference between investing and speculating in leveraged ETFs and momentum trades
• Why diversification and discipline matter more than ever in hot economic conditions

In the second half of the show, the team performs a real‑world Financial Autopsy, analyzing the portfolio of a retired couple in their late 70s. Aaron walks through how excessive equity exposure, high‑fee mutual funds, and poor tax efficiency put retirees at serious risk—despite “good performance” on paper. The group highlights how reallocating toward income, reducing downside risk, and aligning investments with actual retirement goals can dramatically improve peace of mind.

This episode is a powerful reminder that:

Bull markets reward confidence—but they also hide risk.

Whether you’re approaching retirement, already retired, or just wondering how to position your portfolio for an unpredictable 2026, Episode 228 delivers timely perspective, practical insights, and a healthy dose of market realism.

Don’t miss this essential start‑to‑the‑year conversation.

The “Ozempic Portfolio”: Leverage & FOMO! | Ep#227

Markets are printing fresh highs, yet some investors are getting crushed—how does that happen? In this roundtable, Ryan Payne, Bob Payne, Courtney Garcia, and Frankie Lagrotteria break down a real case of a couple in their late 50s whose “do‑anything‑to-go-faster” portfolio relied on leverage and crowd‑favorite names…right as they approach full retirement. We dissect why speculation masquerading as strategy can implode even in up markets, why “know what you own and why you own it” matters more than ever, and how to rebuild a plan centered on durable income and disciplined risk management.

You’ll hear why the “Ozempic portfolio” analogy fits—everyone wants the quick fix—but lasting wealth still requires basics: diversified exposure, sensible cash flow, and rules that keep emotions out of the driver’s seat. We also cover today’s opportunities to generate income (value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds at still‑elevated yields), our 5% rebalance discipline, and the investor psychology traps that move the goalposts until a margin call makes the decision for you. As Bob puts it: time passes, markets operate—embrace that principle, and you’ll stop chasing the cool kids and start compounding with the rich ones.

What we cover:

• Why leverage is a “rocket booster” on both gains and losses—and how portfolios can sink while indexes rise
• The danger of fashion FOMO: copying friends, gym talk, or headlines instead of a plan
• Income blindness: several million invested but only ~$4K/year in cash flow—why that’s a retirement red flag
• Today’s income playbook: value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds (with yields still attractive)
• Discipline over drama: our 5% rebalance trigger and rules that keep feelings from running your money
• Investor psychology: goalpost‑moving, “being right twice” in speculation, and volatility as the fee for long‑term returns
• Practical steps to audit and de‑risk before retirement

Key takeaways:

• Know what you own and why. Double‑levered bets can fall even when the market is up—understand the mechanics before you buy.
• Build real cash flow. Retirement works best when your portfolio pays you, so diversify toward durable income sources.
• Write your rules. Pre‑commit to rebalance triggers, position limits, and exit criteria to avoid emotional decisions.
• Approximately right beats precisely wrong. You don’t need to predict the next macro move; you need a plan you can stick to.

Calls to action:

• If you’re within 5–10 years of retirement, run a leverage and income audit on your portfolio.
• Want help building a rules‑based, income‑focused plan? Schedule a consult with the Payne Capital team and let’s put discipline to work: paynecm.com/financialplan/

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From Yale Law to Barbershop Tech | Ep. 226

In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with Songe LaRon, a dynamic New York City tech entrepreneur, Co-Founder and CEO of SQUIRE Technologies—the world’s leading all-in-one barbershop business management system. Songe shares his remarkable journey from growing up in Manhattan with artist parents, to earning a J.D. from Yale, practicing law at a top firm, and ultimately making the leap from a more certain future in corporate America to launch a tech company that’s transforming an entire industry.

 

We explore how his upbringing shaped his relationship with money, the entrepreneurial spark that led to founding SQUIRE in 2015, and the challenges of breaking into tech without a technical background. Songe reveals how he and his team scaled SQUIRE to serve over 32,000 professionals across three continents, raised nearly $150M in funding, and built a culture of innovation that now integrates AI to revolutionize barbershop operations.

 

This episode is packed with insights on funding a startup, lessons from running an actual barbershop, personal wealth philosophies, and the mindset required to turn an idea into an industry leader. Plus, Songe shares his thoughts on the future of AI in business and the importance of resilience in entrepreneurship.

The Investing Dilemma: Why Chasing AI Could Derail Your Wealth

Is the AI Bubble Finally Here??? The Roundtable We Needed

In episode 225 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan, Bob, and Chris tackle one of the most fundamental—and often overlooked—principles of investing: diversification. Why do so many investors ignore this simple rule and chase the hottest trends like AI stocks? We break down the psychology behind FOMO, the dangers of over-concentration, and why rebalancing your portfolio is one of the hardest—but most important—moves you can make.

You’ll hear real-world examples, including a financial autopsy of a couple in early retirement who were unknowingly taking on massive risk. Plus, we share why protecting what you’ve built matters more than chasing the next big thing and how being “approximately correct” beats being “precisely wrong” every time.

If you want to avoid costly mistakes and build true financial independence, this episode is a must-listen!

How a 25-Year-Old Immigrant’s Startup is Changing U.S. Immigration

In this week’s episode, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney sit down with Mihailo Bozic, a dynamic 25-year-old entrepreneur whose journey from Australia to New York City embodies the classic immigrant founder story. With Serbian roots and a background in Finance and Economics from the University of Western Australia, Mihailo has already launched two impactful startups tackling real-world problems.

From his first venture Envited, a social media app revolutionizing student event planning, to his current company Migrate Mate, a job board helping immigrants find visa-sponsored roles in the U.S., Mihailo shares how he bootstrapped his way to $500K ARR in just three months and built a community of over 16,000 job seekers.

We dive into:

• The challenges of startup funding and scaling
• How viral LinkedIn marketing helped Migrate Mate explode
• Building a 15M+ follower base from a meme page
• Lessons from pitching to VCs as an immigrant founder

Given the uncertainty surrounding today’s labor market, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, evolving U.S. immigration policies, and the shifting landscape of American entrepreneurship, this episode offers timely and thought-provoking insights into the state of the modern U.S. economy.

Whether you’re an investor, an aspiring entrepreneur, an immigrant chasing opportunity, or simply someone who loves a good hustle story—this conversation is packed with inspiration, practical wisdom, and real-world perspective.

Is the AI Bubble Finally Here??? The Roundtable We Needed

All right, all right, all right—this week, it’s just the Payne Capital crew, no guests, no filters, just real talk. After a string of great interviews, we’re bringing it back to the roundtable to tackle the question everyone’s asking: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble?

Bob dives into market history and draws parallels to the tech boom of the '90s. Courtney shares what Wall Street strategists are saying and why the AI narrative is dominating every segment. Chris gives us the pulse from clients—some are all-in on AI, others are bracing for a crash. Ryan calls out the all-or-nothing mindset and why predicting the top is a fool’s game.

We also dissect a real financial plan in our Financial Autopsy segment, helping a couple in their late 60s shift from aggressive growth to income-focused investing—without triggering massive tax bills. From margin debt mania to gold’s surprise rally, from diversification myths to emotional investing traps, this episode is packed with insights, laughs, and actionable advice.

 

Tune in to hear:

 

✅ Are we in 1995 or 1999? Bob reads the market tea leaves.

✅ Why diversification still matters—even if AI is hot.

✅ How to avoid living by the sword and dying by the sword in your portfolio.

✅ The emotional toll of bear markets and how to prepare before they hit.

✅ A real-life case study on reducing risk, increasing income, and optimizing for taxes.

Don’t miss this one—because when the tide goes out, you’ll want to be wearing the right financial swimwear.

 

The Human Edge in a Tech-Driven Economy

In this week’s episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris sit down with Sara Uy, the dynamic 28-year-old founder of SellingSara, a New York-based sales training program. Together, they unpack the shifting landscape of the job market, the rise of AI in hiring, and why soft skills and emotional intelligence are more valuable than ever. Sara shares her firsthand insights into Gen Z’s job search struggles, the disconnect between employer expectations and hiring realities, and why Artificial Intelligence still can’t replace human intelligence—especially in sales. From cold calling in the age of call screening to what makes a top-performing salesperson, this episode delivers sharp insights, humor, and a front-line perspective on how AI is reshaping today’s labor market—and why human skills still matter more than ever.