Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.
Episodes
Wednesday Sep 14, 2022
Wednesday Sep 14, 2022
What's up! It's episode 96 of Payne Points of Wealth! Fool me once J. Powell, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you. The FED continues to talk tough when it comes to raising interest rates to combat inflation. Yet only a year ago, they said there was no reason to raise interest rates at all. Should you trust the FED? Is anything they're saying right now making sense? Should you believe it? Are we going into recession? Is inflation actually coming down? Well, we're gonna give you our viewpoint on what we think is happening right now in the economy, and what you need to be doing with your portfolio. We're also going to talk about unhealthy financial foods. The financial services industry loves to sell you lots of products that you probably don't need in your portfolio. We're gonna break that down for you. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- No one can know what’s unknowable [1:14]
- Energy’s impact on inflation [4:49]
- A huge % of your return comes from dividends [7:02]
- The Tipping Point [11:33]
- Added sugar [14:51]
- Trans fats [17:23]
- Personal trainer vs DIY [19:44]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:35]
Negativity = Opportunity
One thing we know for sure is that there's extreme pessimism out there right now. The negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife. More than one client called this week and said Michael Burry, that guy from The Big Short, he's negative now, he's bearish and calling for a big bubble burst. Well, we get these guys through every cycle. Every cycle you have somebody who made a correct call or a lucky guess and they never have a second one. Better to be right once than never? We used to have magazine covers that would tell us how things are going. Back in the 70s' Businessweek was famous for its headline, The Death of Equities. They wrote an article in 1979 saying stocks would never go up again. That was the biggest bottom of Bob's career and the best buying opportunity he's ever seen in his life. You have the same type of situation right now.
This week on the tipping point: Unhealthy Financial Food
In the financial world, there's a lot of fluff or, products and services you probably want to avoid at all costs. So I thought we could use the analogy of unhealthy financial food and talk about how there are unhealthy financial products that our listeners need to avoid at all costs.
Talk about empty calories, I was doing a proposal for a client and he brought a proposal that he'd received from one of the big banks. The proposal was 75 pages long. After going through it, I could only find about three pages worth of good information. The rest was just legalese and a bunch of what we call industry jargon.
What you see in the financial services industry are these fancy products that add on all these bells and whistles. We know that a lot of annuities out there are guilty of this. A lot of these structured products are where you only get limited downside but you get X amount of the upside. They sound sexy. They sound like really good common sense products but when you start looking under the hood at how they work, you're not getting a good deal. It's actually bad for your financial life.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Annual global sales of industrial robots and factory automation are forecasted to more than double by 2027.
- Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clearly out.
- Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clear!
- While equities are still holding up relative to bonds, there have been no monthly flows into stocks over the past half year. Bonds hate inflation, equities hate recession and risk sentiment right now is appalling.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Sep 07, 2022
Wednesday Sep 07, 2022
What's up! It's episode 95 of Payne Points of Wealth and FED chairman J. Powell has ruined everything! Just two weeks ago before recording this podcast, J Powell came out and basically said that the FED was going to continue to be hawkish with their monetary policy, and markets sold off precipitously. Is this the end? Is the punch bowl going away? Is the economy ruined? Well, we're going to talk about that on our podcast today, we're going to give you our viewpoint. And we're going to talk about critical questions you need to ask yourself if you're putting together your financial independence plan.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- How a great portfolio is like a great rental property? [2:22]
- Bulls or bears…it depends on the wind [4:43]
- Don’t double down on tech [6:58]
- The Tipping Point [11:56]
- Do people really spend less when they retire? [13:08]
- How will you fill the income gap? [15:43]
- Do you know what you own and how are your finances organized? [19:11]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [23:07]
Keep your portfolio because the rents are going up!
That eight-minute speech that J Powell gave certainly sent our clients into a tailspin. I was talking to a client last week and he asked if this was time to sell out of his portfolio. Of course not! The value of your house probably went down 10-15% in the last few months, are you selling that? Of course, the answer's no.
Owning a great portfolio is a lot like owning a rental property. With the dividends and interest, it pays you're going to collect rent until the market goes back up. Under our e-money portal, you can even pull in the value of your real estate from Zillow, so it's updated in real-time.
One client I spoke with has a lot of rental properties. He said that they were at all-time record highs and now they're down like 15% in some cases. I said well, why don't you panic out and sell? He said, why would I do that? I'm still collecting my rent and guess what I'm going to do next year? Raise it.
That's kind of how it works with the stock market. Stocks pay dividends. We just had global dividends hit an all-time record high at $545 billion. Think about that. We have increased dividends to the highest level ever and they're going to go up again next year!
This week on the tipping point: Critical questions
We thought today we could talk about certain questions that you really want to ask yourself to make sure that you're on track to what we call that proverbial financial independence. We covered some critical questions that everyone needs to answer to make sure that they're on their path. Will you really spend less in retirement? SPOILER ALERT...Probably not! Where will your income come from and how will you get it? Do you know what you own and more importantly WHY you own it? How are your finances organized? Can you generate enough returns that it keeps abreast of inflation? If you haven’t asked yourself these questions in a while (or ever) then this is an episode you will want to listen to! Go check it out ASAP!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Small investors matter for Tesla. About 46% of shares available for trading are held by non-institutional investors. The comparable number for Google is only 15%. Small investors basically drive that stock.
- American airlines group is planning to buy up to 20 supersonic jets to speed up air travel. Boom Supersonic is developing an airplane called Overture, which is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers. American Airlines said that supersonic flights from Los Angeles to Honolulu would take only three hours or as little as half the time of a standard jet.
- A high-tech portrait of Warren Buffet topped $75,000 in bidding. It shows a grid of letters over an image of the investor that lights up to spell out several of his famous quotes. Proceeds from the eBay auction, which concluded on Buffet's 92nd birthday, will go to one of his favorite charities Girls Inc. of Omaha.
- HBO's House of Dragons, the prequel of Game of Thrones racked up 10 million viewers on its debut, a record for the network. Demand was so great that thousands of US online viewers experienced crashes.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 31, 2022
Wednesday Aug 31, 2022
What's up! It's episode 94 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a special and very different episode for you today. We have a good friend Rich Antoniello, on the podcast. He's the former CEO and founder of Complex Media, a company that recently merged with BuzzFeed. Rich talks about the entrepreneurship journey, how he came from humble beginnings back in Brooklyn, and how that impacted his view of finances. He also talks about the state of the financial services industry in general. It's a great interview, Rich is a really charismatic guy, and he's got a pretty cool take on things. We think you're going like it.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Rich roots from humble beginnings [1:04]
- Having the guts to leave the guiled cage [8:36]
- The psychology of money [15:04]
- Sold not bought [25:00]
- What is the 3.0 version of what the market has become? [32:24]
- The impact of music [42:51]
What was it like for Rich growing up in Brooklyn?
Rich says it's not just the location, but you have to think about the cultural and familial side. Both of his parents were immigrants. His mom was one of 9 and his dad was one of 8. So literally big families, both Depression kids, and education wasn’t big on either side. Then you layer on the neighborhood. It's a beautiful place to live if you want to grow up around neighbors and neighborhoods where it's basically extended family. The trade-off was that you lived a very small life because your exposure was so narrow. There were a lot of cops, a lot of firemen, and union jobs. His dad was a UPS delivery guy. The aperture of what you're knowledgeable about and what you see is limited. There were very few executives and very few financial guys. Rich's exposure to business was trying read a Wall Street Journal which was not something readily available.
But he thinks it was a great thing in that he learned foundational values. You couldn't operate within that world in any other way. These were good people, but the view of ambition and even understanding what a floor in a ceiling would be like from a career perspective was just nowhere. And he couldn't Google it back then either. The library had a whole bunch of old biographies. It was great to be able to go read about Rockefeller, but it wasn't exactly what Rich would call inspirational from the standpoint of understanding what a blueprint or a track would be from a realistic perspective for somebody like him.
Rich’s mind on money
Obviously, Rich's financial circumstances have changed drastically from his humble roots in Brooklyn. But how has that changed his perception of money and how is it the same just because of his upbringing? The way we're brought up does color the way that we view our financial situation, financial security, and a lot of the decisions we make around money.
Rich explains how his perception has changed entirely but his behaviors have not come all the way along. He's massively aggressive and understands so much more and can see the things, but there's that little voice in the back of his head that always pulls him back from being as aggressive at the edge as he'd like to be. Check out the episode to hear him go deeper on this.
Where is finance fundamentals 101
Rich thinks the lack of foundational, honest, educational, finance 101 is unbelievable. People don't like talking about it, but when somebody tries to sell them something they feel more comfortable going to Google than they do talking to somebody. They are looking for it, but nobody is offering that.
We should all have had this type of education foundationally. Ideally, it happens at a family level, but most families don't have it to give. Rich says his own father couldn't help him think about the way his life has unfolded. That's not a knock on him, he just had no exposure, education, or the wherewithal to even think about any of those things.
Why don't the leading platforms, especially the leading media platforms, provide that baseline level of understanding so that when you do talk about meme stocks and short squeezes you're not getting caught up in the hoopla but you're educated enough to look at that and fundamentally understand?
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 17, 2022
Wednesday Aug 17, 2022
What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The surprises always come in the positive [2:42]
- This time next year [6:06]
- History teaches us everything [9:01]
- The Tipping Point [12:26]
- Begin with the end in mind [13:50]
- Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]
The Market is always right!
Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward.
That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing.
This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle
We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years.
If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people.
That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%.
- Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015.
- Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man.
- Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive!
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Embrace the gloom [1:05]
- You can’t be all or none [3:58]
- Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00]
- The Tipping Point [10:47]
- Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32]
- The 2 out of 3 rule
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]
There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market!
Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with.
We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash!
This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products
In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for:
- Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print.
- Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer.
Check out the episode to hear us explain why!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age.
- Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms.
- Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years.
- New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view.
On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help?
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32]
- What the FED is doing is working [5:55]
- What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21]
- The Tipping Point [12:43]
- Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50]
- What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]
Are the lows already behind us?
Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation.
It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat.
This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions?
The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised.
This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone.
- About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity.
- An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million.
- Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it.
Resources & People Mentioned
Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Jul 20, 2022
Wednesday Jul 20, 2022
What's up! It's episode 90 of Payne Points of Wealth! Who once said there ain't no time for the summertime blues? Well, guess what? The stock market didn't get the memo, we're still seeing tremendous volatility in stocks right now. Earnings season is upon us and it could be the most critical earning season of the year and give us a preview into what's going to happen in the economy the rest of the year. Of course, we're going to give you our thoughts today on how you should position your portfolio right now to protect yourself but grow your money. On the Tipping Point, we're going to give you some practical tips and steps to ensure you're going to be financially independent.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Businesses are showing no signs of recession but banks are prepping [1:07]
- Uncertainty is high. Are we going over a cliff? [4:19]
- How can low markets be in the best interest of your portfolio? [6:17]
- The Tipping Point [8:55]
- Are you taking the appropriate amount of risk? [10:30]
- Looking under the hood to find out what risk you’re really taking [13:33]
- Having a holistic plan [15:44]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:39]
Perhaps this is in my best interest
An upset client called worried about what's going on with the world and she was concerned about her portfolio. This is normal and something we hear often. She asked if we thought it would be a good time for her to go to cash? Of course, our answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! We informed her that that would hurt her entire plan.
She wanted to know why.
We went on to explain that more than half of her returns come just from those interest and dividends and that she needed to remember that we're reinvesting that at low, low prices. She then says, so this actually could be a good thing for me? We couldn't congratulate that client more. She's absolutely right and there’s nothing better than the feeling you get when a client gets it!
This week on the tipping point: Are you taking the appropriate risk?
We have found that the biggest question we get from people who come to us whether they're referred or they come knocking on our door, is "Am I taking enough risk to achieve my goals, or am I taking more risk than necessary?" And what we've found with most investors is they take way more risk than necessary, especially when they're within three years of achieving their retirement goals. The problem is you don't realize you're taking that risk until the market goes down.
How would you even know the risk you're taking if you have multiple accounts? You'd probably think you were diversified because you have different accounts. The problem is when you look under the hood and you look at all those accounts together, a lot of that money is all concentrated in the same place and you probably don't even know it. You're thinking I have lots of accounts, lots of different investments. I'm probably diversified and you're wrong. You're not diversified. You know, it really pays to know how all your money is allocated together.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- During the 12 US recessions since WWII the median decline in dividends paid by S&P 500 companies was just 1% in 5 of those recessions, 1949, 74, 80, 81, and 90 there was absolutely no decline. Even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P dividends only fell by 3%. Dividends are a great inflation hedge.
- During the Great Inflation from 1968 to 1983, the consumer price index surged 186% or 7.3% annually over 15 years. Exacerbated by two oil crises that also slowed the economy and increased unemployment. This painful condition was dubbed stagflation.
- A one-bedroom apartment in New York City has been leased for $5,000 a month. That 600 square feet. Whoever said New York city was dead was clearly wrong.
- The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF has dropped 24% in 2022, worse than the S&P's 18% decline as this recording. Momentum is among the worst performing factors this year trailing only growth.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Thursday Jul 14, 2022
Thursday Jul 14, 2022
What's up! It's episode 89 of Payne Points of Wealth. Recession, no recession? I know you're tired of talking about it. We’re tired of talking about it. The media can't stop talking about it. Well, we're going to give you our views today. The employment numbers were hot last week, red hot, we've got over 11 million jobs available in this country and only 5 million people looking. We're suspicious about this recession and we'll talk about why in this episode. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the hard truths of financial independence that you're going to have to grapple with, that you will have to deal with if you want to be financially free. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The most highly anticipated recession in history [1:05]
- Is it a recession or a slow down? [4:26]
- The Tipping Point [8:27]
- How we know when someone has a bad investment strategy [10:10]
- Now is the time to be proactive [13:17]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03]
The problem with the media
The problem with the media is that you get this barrage of negative news and it discounts the fact that there are a lot of positives out there. Look at earnings, we've got earning seasons upon us, and for all intent and purposes, it's probably going to be pretty good. You're going to have some revisions downward for some companies, but for the most part, the projections looking out for the rest of the year should be pretty solid.
We've got earnings growth, loan employment, and Americans sitting on their highest net worth ever, meanwhile, all we can hear about is how we're having this slowdown, how we're about to fall off a cliff. It just doesn't jive, with what it actually happening right now in the economy. And I think many people will regret it later, not taking advantage of the uncertainty right now. This uncertainty is your best friend as an investor and when you look back, these are always your best opportunities.
This week on the tipping point: No way around uncertainty
When we're helping people achieve their path to financial independence, there's no way to get around uncertainty. We wish we could make it so easy and all the variables could just be taken out of the equation but part of financial independence and part of financial freedom is you have to become somewhat comfortable with the fact that things are always a little uncertain. That's why it's so critical to have a process-driven strategy when investing your money versus an event-driven strategy. The market is counterintuitive, if you depend on what the Federal Reserve is going to do next the market has already anticipated that. You're going to have a hard time making investment decisions based on reacting all the time to what's going on. If you're process driven, it gives you the ability to be unemotional and to be a little more pragmatic when it comes to strategy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Hendrik Bessembinder performed a study on every stock on the New York stock exchange in NASDAQ, going back to 1926. He found that 86 stocks accounted for roughly half of the market's total return over 90 years!
- The age of peak TV is ending a TV director who made 4 million a year now gets 750,000 a year. TV budgets have dropped more than 30%.
- Top Gun is making 2022 a top year for both Tom Cruise and Paramount pictures. Top Gun Maverick passed 1 billion in global ticket sales making it the highest-grossing film ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest movie for the studio since Transformers Age of Extinction in 2014.
- Bridgewater's flagship hedge fund gained 32% for the first half of the year in their firm's Pure Alpha II fund, which is pretty impressive. The fund has returned 11.4% annualized since its inception in 1991, which is really not that impressive when you consider you could have just bought the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% since 1991.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
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Thursday Jul 07, 2022
Thursday Jul 07, 2022
What's up! It's episode 88 of Payne Points of Wealth, and we’ve finished the year's first half. It's been the worst start of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970 as markets are down nearly 20%. In the meantime, inflation remains high. The Fed is going to continue to tighten its monetary policy. What does this all mean for the second half of the year? Well, the answer may surprise you and we're going to break it down for you today. On the Tipping Point today, since we're just passing the 4th of July weekend, we're going to talk about financial independence. What do you need to be independent of to be financially independent? We're going to talk about how to give you your path to financial freedom the right way.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The downside of cooling off the economy [1:25]
- Don’t wait for opportunity to be gone [3:56]
- Picking on Wall Street [7:42]
- The Tipping Point [10:07]
- Scared money never wins [14:06]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:50]
Look for the positives among the negative news
The financial media grabs onto every negative headline. They take everything that's bad and exacerbated by making it sound even worse. China, for example, is coming out of its COVID shutdown instead of focusing on the fact that it's going to help the supply chain disruptions which will help the global economy they look for ways to scare people. Saying things like that demand will push oil to $200 a barrel.
They take every bit of news and they spin it negatively and of course, when your portfolio's down, your statement's down, you tend to start to view those headlines with a little more attention than you normally would. It forces you to think negatively and that's where you must be careful. You have to remember the values are better now than they were in the last six months. You have bond yields that are attractive. There's a lot of opportunity being created but the news media wants you to think that it will never get better.
This week on the tipping point: What do you want to be free FROM?
We just celebrated the 4th of July and in the spirit of the independence weekend, let's talk about financial freedom and what we want to be free FROM to indeed be financially independent.
One of the biggest things we want to be independent of is the government. You want to maximize your Social Security from them but you want to pay the least amount of tax possible. It blows our minds at how many tax inefficient portfolios we review almost daily. Within the confines of the law, there are so many little tweaks you can make to your portfolio. It's always little tweaks and not big sweeping changes that have a dramatic impact on your portfolio.
Independence from family is another thing we want to celebrate on the 4th of July. Not that you don't want your kids around, but you don't want to be sleeping on your kid's couch in your golden years. So you want to be certain that you have a plan in place that accounts not just for the income you need, but for the inflation that we're seeing in this current economy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Paul McCartney's total reported career growth has now surpassed the billion dollar mark making him one of 11 artists to surpass the mark in box scores 30+ year history.
- TikTok has surged to a billion plus global users. It raked in almost 4 billion last year in 2021, mostly from ads, and has projected to hit 12 billion this year.
- It's been a dreadful first half of the year for speculative grade debt bond funds, AKA junk bonds. With the popular iShares iBoxx high yield corporate bond exchange traded funds suffering and negative. Total 13% negative return this year through June 22nd.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
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Wednesday Jun 29, 2022
Wednesday Jun 29, 2022
What's up! It's episode 87 of Payne Points of Wealth and the S & P 500 has had the worst start of the year since 1970 and there's a lot to be concerned about. We've got war in Eastern Europe, we've got interest rates going up, we have inflation at the highest it’s been in literally 40 years. In addition to that, we have China in somewhat of a lockdown. We've got commodity prices starting to come down. What does it all mean? Well, we're going to break it down today. We're going to tell you exactly what we think about the economy, the market. Markets are down over 20% so we're going to talk about a bear market survival guide. Do you have what it takes to survive this bear market? Listen and find out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Clarity is not a friend of the investor [1:43]
- The Fed is doing a good job [4:11]
- When you make the big money in your portfolio [7:17]
- The Tipping Point [9:14]
- How quickly can you turn your investments to cash? [11:57]
- Avoid the sexy pitch [14:11]
- Are you obsessed with dividend-yielding stock? [16:11]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:27]
You can't get good prices with good news
The only thing certain about this market is uncertainty. We have recession fears, inflation, hysteria, interest rate concerns, and a federal reserve that told us that the inflation rate was transitory. Now they're telling us we'll tell you when it's done going up and we'll be able to give you a nice soft landing. Sounds like we're gonna have a real bumpy landing! The point is when you get markets that go down this quickly and this hard, generally, there's a snap-back rally at some point, and you don't want to be on the sidelines when that happens.
The way that markets work, and we talk about this a lot, they're forward-looking. The market will most likely recover way before the news gets better. A popular mentality is "Let me just wait and see. Are we in a recession yet? Let's get some clarity." Well, clarity is not your friend when it comes to investing. When the uncertainty is high and we have no idea what's going to happen, that's when you get the best pricing. You can't get good prices with good news. So this bad news is a huge advantage, as you're trying to allocate capital right now, you've gotta embrace the uncertainty.
This week on the tipping point: Bear market survival guide
While it may feel prudent to take action during a bear market decline and sell out of your portfolio in our experience, the long-term results can be disastrous. Selling when prices are down will lead to permanent losses and then you miss the inevitable big recovery rally, which typically comes out of nowhere. Therefore, keeping your head during these extreme periods of volatility is critical to achieving your long-term financial goals. I thought we could discuss our firm's bear market survival guide.
The number one thing you should always do is reassess your portfolio allocation, especially when you're in volatile times. We tend to let our winners run and ignore our losers so over time you get out of balance. If you're not constantly rebalancing your portfolio with cash flow or with some type of systematic rebalancing annually, you're most likely out of whack right now and the market is not very forgiving guys. It reminds you when you're outta whack.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- US Federal regulators say 46,000 people have reported losing $1 billion in the Crypto Market in scams since January of this past year.
- The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
- The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
- Thanks to the Stranger Things series on Netflix, Kate Bush has broken three UK chart records with the resurgence of "Running Up That Hill" which last peaked on the charts at #3 in 1985!
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify