Payne Points of Wealth

The Surprises Always Come In The Positive, Ep #93

What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The surprises always come in the positive [2:42]
• This time next year [6:06]
• History teaches us everything [9:01]
• The Tipping Point [12:26]
• Begin with the end in mind [13:50]
• Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]

The Market is always right!

Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward. 

That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing. 

This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle

We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years.

If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people.

That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%. 
• Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015.
• Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man.
• Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive!

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
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Buyer Beware: Wall Street Products That Get ̶B̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ SOLD, Ep #92

What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Embrace the gloom [1:05]
• You can’t be all or none [3:58]
• Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00]
• The Tipping Point [10:47]
• Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32]
• The 2 out of 3 rule 
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]

There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market!

Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with. 

We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash!

This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products

In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for:

1. Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print. 
2. Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer. 

Check out the episode to hear us explain why!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age.
• Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms.
• Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years.
• New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
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Can You Pass Financial Independence Pop Quiz?, Ep #91

What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view. 

On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help?

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32]
• What the FED is doing is working [5:55]
• What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21]
• The Tipping Point [12:43]
• Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50]
• What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]

Are the lows already behind us?

Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation. 

It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat.

This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions?

The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised. 

This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone. 
• About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity. 
• An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million.
• Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it. 

Resources & People Mentioned

Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses.

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
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Are We Going Into Stagflation?, Ep #90

What's up! It's episode 90 of Payne Points of Wealth! Who once said there ain't no time for the summertime blues? Well, guess what? The stock market didn't get the memo, we're still seeing tremendous volatility in stocks right now. Earnings season is upon us and it could be the most critical earning season of the year and give us a preview into what's going to happen in the economy the rest of the year. Of course, we're going to give you our thoughts today on how you should position your portfolio right now to protect yourself but grow your money. On the Tipping Point, we're going to give you some practical tips and steps to ensure you're going to be financially independent. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Businesses are showing no signs of recession but banks are prepping [1:07]
• Uncertainty is high. Are we going over a cliff? [4:19]
• How can low markets be in the best interest of your portfolio? [6:17]
• The Tipping Point [8:55]
• Are you taking the appropriate amount of risk? [10:30]
• Looking under the hood to find out what risk you’re really taking [13:33]
• Having a holistic plan [15:44]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:39]

Perhaps this is in my best interest

An upset client called worried about what's going on with the world and she was concerned about her portfolio. This is normal and something we hear often. She asked if we thought it would be a good time for her to go to cash? Of course, our answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! We informed her that that would hurt her entire plan. 

She wanted to know why.

We went on to explain that more than half of her returns come just from those interest and dividends and that she needed to remember that we're reinvesting that at low, low prices. She then says, so this actually could be a good thing for me? We couldn't congratulate that client more. She's absolutely right and there’s nothing better than the feeling you get when a client gets it!

This week on the tipping point: Are you taking the appropriate risk?

We have found that the biggest question we get from people who come to us whether they're referred or they come knocking on our door, is "Am I taking enough risk to achieve my goals, or am I taking more risk than necessary?" And what we've found with most investors is they take way more risk than necessary, especially when they're within three years of achieving their retirement goals. The problem is you don't realize you're taking that risk until the market goes down. 

How would you even know the risk you're taking if you have multiple accounts? You'd probably think you were diversified because you have different accounts. The problem is when you look under the hood and you look at all those accounts together, a lot of that money is all concentrated in the same place and you probably don't even know it. You're thinking I have lots of accounts, lots of different investments. I'm probably diversified and you're wrong. You're not diversified. You know, it really pays to know how all your money is allocated together. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• During the 12 US recessions since WWII the median decline in dividends paid by S&P 500 companies was just 1% in 5 of those recessions, 1949, 74, 80, 81, and 90 there was absolutely no decline. Even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P dividends only fell by 3%. Dividends are a great inflation hedge. 
• During the Great Inflation from 1968 to 1983, the consumer price index surged 186% or 7.3% annually over 15 years. Exacerbated by two oil crises that also slowed the economy and increased unemployment. This painful condition was dubbed stagflation. 
• A one-bedroom apartment in New York City has been leased for $5,000 a month. That 600 square feet. Whoever said New York city was dead was clearly wrong. 
• The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF has dropped 24% in 2022, worse than the S&P's 18% decline as this recording. Momentum is among the worst performing factors this year trailing only growth.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
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The Hard Truths of Financial Independence, Ep #89

What's up! It's episode 89 of Payne Points of Wealth. Recession, no recession? I know you're tired of talking about it. We’re tired of talking about it. The media can't stop talking about it. Well, we're going to give you our views today. The employment numbers were hot last week, red hot, we've got over 11 million jobs available in this country and only 5 million people looking. We're suspicious about this recession and we'll talk about why in this episode. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the hard truths of financial independence that you're going to have to grapple with, that you will have to deal with if you want to be financially free. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The most highly anticipated recession in history [1:05]
• Is it a recession or a slow down? [4:26]
• The Tipping Point [8:27]
• How we know when someone has a bad investment strategy [10:10]
• Now is the time to be proactive [13:17]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03]

The problem with the media

The problem with the media is that you get this barrage of negative news and it discounts the fact that there are a lot of positives out there. Look at earnings, we've got earning seasons upon us, and for all intent and purposes, it's probably going to be pretty good. You're going to have some revisions downward for some companies, but for the most part, the projections looking out for the rest of the year should be pretty solid. 

We've got earnings growth, loan employment, and Americans sitting on their highest net worth ever, meanwhile, all we can hear about is how we're having this slowdown, how we're about to fall off a cliff. It just doesn't jive, with what it actually happening right now in the economy. And I think many people will regret it later, not taking advantage of the uncertainty right now. This uncertainty is your best friend as an investor and when you look back, these are always your best opportunities. 

This week on the tipping point: No way around uncertainty

When we're helping people achieve their path to financial independence, there's no way to get around uncertainty. We wish we could make it so easy and all the variables could just be taken out of the equation but part of financial independence and part of financial freedom is you have to become somewhat comfortable with the fact that things are always a little uncertain. That's why it's so critical to have a process-driven strategy when investing your money versus an event-driven strategy. The market is counterintuitive, if you depend on what the Federal Reserve is going to do next the market has already anticipated that. You're going to have a hard time making investment decisions based on reacting all the time to what's going on. If you're process driven, it gives you the ability to be unemotional and to be a little more pragmatic when it comes to strategy. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Hendrik Bessembinder performed a study on every stock on the New York stock exchange in NASDAQ, going back to 1926. He found that 86 stocks accounted for roughly half of the market's total return over 90 years!
• The age of peak TV is ending a TV director who made 4 million a year now gets 750,000 a year. TV budgets have dropped more than 30%.
• Top Gun is making 2022 a top year for both Tom Cruise and Paramount pictures. Top Gun Maverick passed 1 billion in global ticket sales making it the highest-grossing film ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest movie for the studio since Transformers Age of Extinction in 2014.
• Bridgewater's flagship hedge fund gained 32% for the first half of the year in their firm's Pure Alpha II fund, which is pretty impressive. The fund has returned 11.4% annualized since its inception in 1991, which is really not that impressive when you consider you could have just bought the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% since 1991.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
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Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What Do You Want To Be Free FROM To Truly Be Financially Independent?, Ep #88

What's up! It's episode 88 of Payne Points of Wealth, and we’ve finished the year's first half. It's been the worst start of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970 as markets are down nearly 20%. In the meantime, inflation remains high. The Fed is going to continue to tighten its monetary policy. What does this all mean for the second half of the year? Well, the answer may surprise you and we're going to break it down for you today. On the Tipping Point today, since we're just passing the 4th of July weekend, we're going to talk about financial independence. What do you need to be independent of to be financially independent? We're going to talk about how to give you your path to financial freedom the right way.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The downside of cooling off the economy [1:25]
• Don’t wait for opportunity to be gone [3:56]
• Picking on Wall Street [7:42]
• The Tipping Point [10:07]
• Scared money never wins [14:06]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:50]

Look for the positives among the negative news

The financial media grabs onto every negative headline. They take everything that's bad and exacerbated by making it sound even worse. China, for example, is coming out of its COVID shutdown instead of focusing on the fact that it's going to help the supply chain disruptions which will help the global economy they look for ways to scare people. Saying things like that demand will push oil to $200 a barrel. 

They take every bit of news and they spin it negatively and of course, when your portfolio's down, your statement's down, you tend to start to view those headlines with a little more attention than you normally would. It forces you to think negatively and that's where you must be careful. You have to remember the values are better now than they were in the last six months. You have bond yields that are attractive. There's a lot of opportunity being created but the news media wants you to think that it will never get better. 

This week on the tipping point: What do you want to be free FROM?

We just celebrated the 4th of July and in the spirit of the independence weekend, let's talk about financial freedom and what we want to be free FROM to indeed be financially independent.

One of the biggest things we want to be independent of is the government. You want to maximize your Social Security from them but you want to pay the least amount of tax possible. It blows our minds at how many tax inefficient portfolios we review almost daily. Within the confines of the law, there are so many little tweaks you can make to your portfolio. It's always little tweaks and not big sweeping changes that have a dramatic impact on your portfolio. 

Independence from family is another thing we want to celebrate on the 4th of July. Not that you don't want your kids around, but you don't want to be sleeping on your kid's couch in your golden years. So you want to be certain that you have a plan in place that accounts not just for the income you need, but for the inflation that we're seeing in this current economy. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Paul McCartney's total reported career growth has now surpassed the billion dollar mark making him one of 11 artists to surpass the mark in box scores 30+ year history.
• TikTok has surged to a billion plus global users. It raked in almost 4 billion last year in 2021, mostly from ads, and has projected to hit 12 billion this year. 
• It's been a dreadful first half of the year for speculative grade debt bond funds, AKA junk bonds. With the popular iShares iBoxx high yield corporate bond exchange traded funds suffering and negative. Total 13% negative return this year through June 22nd.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
• Subscribe on YouTube
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Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Bear Market Survival Guide, Ep #87

What's up! It's episode 87 of Payne Points of Wealth and the S & P 500 has had the worst start of the year since 1970 and there's a lot to be concerned about. We've got war in Eastern Europe, we've got interest rates going up, we have inflation at the highest it’s been in literally 40 years. In addition to that, we have China in somewhat of a lockdown. We've got commodity prices starting to come down. What does it all mean? Well, we're going to break it down today. We're going to tell you exactly what we think about the economy, the market. Markets are down over 20% so we're going to talk about a bear market survival guide. Do you have what it takes to survive this bear market? Listen and find out!

 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Clarity is not a friend of the investor [1:43]
• The Fed is doing a good job [4:11]
• When you make the big money in your portfolio [7:17]
• The Tipping Point [9:14]
• How quickly can you turn your investments to cash? [11:57]
• Avoid the sexy pitch [14:11]
• Are you obsessed with dividend-yielding stock? [16:11]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:27]

You can't get good prices with good news

The only thing certain about this market is uncertainty. We have recession fears, inflation, hysteria, interest rate concerns, and a federal reserve that told us that the inflation rate was transitory. Now they're telling us we'll tell you when it's done going up and we'll be able to give you a nice soft landing. Sounds like we're gonna have a real bumpy landing! The point is when you get markets that go down this quickly and this hard, generally, there's a snap-back rally at some point, and you don't want to be on the sidelines when that happens.

The way that markets work, and we talk about this a lot, they're forward-looking. The market will most likely recover way before the news gets better. A popular mentality is "Let me just wait and see. Are we in a recession yet? Let's get some clarity." Well, clarity is not your friend when it comes to investing. When the uncertainty is high and we have no idea what's going to happen, that's when you get the best pricing. You can't get good prices with good news. So this bad news is a huge advantage, as you're trying to allocate capital right now, you've gotta embrace the uncertainty.

This week on the tipping point: Bear market survival guide

While it may feel prudent to take action during a bear market decline and sell out of your portfolio in our experience, the long-term results can be disastrous. Selling when prices are down will lead to permanent losses and then you miss the inevitable big recovery rally, which typically comes out of nowhere. Therefore, keeping your head during these extreme periods of volatility is critical to achieving your long-term financial goals. I thought we could discuss our firm's bear market survival guide. 

The number one thing you should always do is reassess your portfolio allocation, especially when you're in volatile times. We tend to let our winners run and ignore our losers so over time you get out of balance. If you're not constantly rebalancing your portfolio with cash flow or with some type of systematic rebalancing annually, you're most likely out of whack right now and the market is not very forgiving guys. It reminds you when you're outta whack.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• US Federal regulators say 46,000 people have reported losing $1 billion in the Crypto Market in scams since January of this past year.
• The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
• The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
• Thanks to the Stranger Things series on Netflix, Kate Bush has broken three UK chart records with the resurgence of "Running Up That Hill" which last peaked on the charts at #3 in 1985! 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
• Subscribe on YouTube
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Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Exposing Financial Untruths, Ep #86

What's up! It's episode 86 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling. We're in an official bear market now in the S & P 500. NASDAQ is down over 30%. The headlines get direr by the day. War continues in Eastern Europe. And Bitcoin, we warned you about Bitcoin, is melting down. Well, we're gonna break it all down for you today. We have a special guest on the show today, Lee Robinson, co-founder, and CIO of Altana Wealth, an asset management firm running all different hedge fund strategies. He predicted the credit crisis between 2007 and 2009. He's seen a lot of bull and bubble bursts, written a great book called "The Gathering Storm", has a BA in mathematics from Cambridge University, and he is a good friend of Ryan's.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Lee’s outlook on the current economic market [1:23]
• There’s neven been an empire that hasn’t failed [5:00]
• One piece of advice as an investor [10:01]
• The Tipping Point [11:20]
• The 80% lie [11:49]
• The income for life guarantee [14:19]
• If it ain’t broke don’t fix it [18:04]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:26]

Advice from Lee Robinson

In this episode, we talked with Lee Robinson. We asked him if he could share only one piece of advice, something that he's learned over the years that he could impart on the rest of us, what would it be? This is what he has to say.

"I think the biggest mistake that I see in finance is that people cannot work from forward back to the present. They get panicked, they see a company that has a profit warning because it couldn't satisfy an order. Well, those orders are still going to come, it's still a good business. So there's a lot of short-term emotion and not enough rational thought about long-term. And I think if you're investing, I'm not talking about trading. Traders are different people. They can buy high and sell higher. They can sell low and it goes lower. But as an investor—trust, try, and think forward. When you're in a pandemic and Carnival is not allowed to do any cruises, does that mean that cruising is over forever and that business is worth zero? Probably not. So I do think sometimes investors need to think I am investing for the long run. What does this business look like in the long run? And then think, well, is it too expensive today, rather than thinking I'm buying it today can it go up tomorrow? So I think investing is something people don't understand. They confuse it with trading.

This week on the tipping point: Financial untruths

For anyone who's getting close to being financially independent or going into retirement, there is this myth that you only need 80% of what you need when you're working when you're retired. 

We know that's just not true. Not only do you spend a hundred percent of what you spend today, in the first few years of retirement, you're not going to work anymore but you are going traveling, you're spending more time with your kids and your grandkids you’ll probably spend close to 120%. That's why it's so critical to have a strategy where you're updating your financial plan on a systematic basis. Our e-money portal because it updates everything in real time so it's easy for us to do a planning session if someone decides to take a longer vacation, buy

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• A group led by Walmart heir Robert Walton agreed to buy the Denver Broncos for 4.65 billion, a record in US pro sports.
• Apple generates more revenue than any other American company. This year, the total should be around 400 billion. To boost revenue by 10% Apple needs to find 40 billion in additional sales. Growth becomes harder the bigger you become.
• Worker swipe-ins at office buildings were recently in the 30 to 40% range in major markets, such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It was above 50% in the sunbelt markets like Dallas and Houston. People are not back to the office in droves yet.
• US inflation is 48th highest on the list of 111 countries. Last year we were ranked 28th out of 116. countries. Inflation is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon. 

Resources & People Mentioned

Special guest Lee Robinson from Altana Wealth

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Coping With Volatility… Are Your Emotions In Check?, Ep #85

What's up! It's episode 85 of Payne Points of Wealth and some days the market goes up, some days the market goes down. Some days interest rates go up, and some days they go down. So what's going on right now? Which way is the market blowing? We're going to talk about what we think is going to happen with the market and the economy. Are we going to go into this recession that more and more economists are talking about? And is inflation done with? Are we going to see peak inflation now or is it going to keep going up the rest of the year? We're going to tell you what we think for the summer and the rest of the year on how to position your portfolio and what we see in the economy ahead. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your emotions. How do you handle uncertainty? We're going to talk about the right way and the wrong way to handle volatility. Keep your emotions in check, and check it out. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Is the economy actually bad? [1:14]
• We’ve already had the recession! [3:52]
• A lot of tailwinds just waiting to get unleashed [7:19]
• The Tipping Point [10:09]
• Fear and panic [10:51]
• Opportunism [13:17]
• Numbness [14:25]
• Anger [15:52]
• Blissful ignorance [16:27]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:36]

One positive catalyst can change everything!

Everyone's talking about all the negativity, we have list upon list of what's negative right now. However, look at China, the restrictions are starting to go away, look at inflation, there's a good chance that inflation's going to come down this year. So you get one positive catalyst. Man, oh man, this market could ramp up in a hurry and you don't wanna be on the sidelines, earning nothing in cash, just trying to play catch up later. Like that's not the position you want to be in, right? I mean, you wanna be prepared for the unexpected and the unexpected being positive here, not negative because a lot of this negative news is already priced in the market. Cuz we're talking about it. 

This week on the tipping point: Coping with uncertainty

We're in a period of extreme turbulence and what we have found at our firm Payne Capital Management, is that when volatility is high and the future unclear, we all cope with uncertainty in different ways. In this episode, we will discuss some of the different emotions or mindsets that we've seen on display over the last couple of months and whether it is helping you or in some cases, hurting your financial independence plan.

The first one is fear and panic. Are you allowing yourself to make poor decisions like trying to time the market? It’s probably due to these two emotions. Then there is opportunism. We hear people say "I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to collapse." But to be able to predict that is impossible. 

Another emotion we think a lot of people are feeling right now is despondency or we'll call it numbness. Where maybe you put a lot of money into tech, disruptive technology, or Bitcoin, and now all of a sudden you're down huge. The mindset we're seeing is to sit and wait for it to come back. That can be wrong because we don't know when it's going to rebound.

Then there is an emotion that everybody gets at some point, Bob even had this happen to him. You get angry. You know when you lose a lot of money on something and then refuse to buy anymore even if it does well because you are angry about what happened.

And lastly is blissful ignorance. If your advisor isn’t talking to you about your portfolio and what you should be doing proactively. Don’t just hope and pray that they are looking out for your best interest. If they're not talking to you that's not something to be ignorant about.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Ironically, momentum stocks, which by definition should be the best performers, have been getting hit with the iShare's Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF declining 20% in 2022. The trend is not your friend!
• In the third quarter of 2021, the $191,000,000 JP Morgan small cap sustainable leaders fund became, all of a sudden overnight, an ESG or environmentally friendly fund in one year when it lost 184 million in assets.
• 18 months ago Zoom had a bigger market capitalization than Exxon Mobil but today Exxon is 10 times bigger than Zoom.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
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If You’re Sitting In Cash Right Now… What Are You Waiting For?, Ep #84

What's up! It's episode 84 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets Go Up, Markets Go Down, Markets Go Sideways! We have no idea where the direction of the market is going right now. It's crazy out there. We've got good manufacturing data. We've got good employment data. Yet, it seems like something is looming on the horizon. We're gonna break it down for you. What our view is of the economy right now and how to position your portfolio best given all the uncertainty in the world. On the Tipping Point today, we've got lots of questions from you the listeners. We're going to answer some of the questions that you've sent us in the last couple of months, some really good ones that we're gonna address today to help you on your path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Is this a 2008 repeat or is it different this time? [1:08]
• If you're sitting in cash right now what are you waiting for? [4:42]
• How can you have a recession when everyone is employed? [7:11]
• The Tipping Point [9:22]
• Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? [14:57]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:04]

Is it different this time?

We're getting a lot of questions as to whether this is like the 2008, 2009 great recession, is financial panic on the horizon, or is it different this time? You know the four most dangerous words according to Sir John Templeton are it's different this time. We're seeing phenomenal economic numbers so we don't think that it's a repeat of 2008 and 2009. But when you see the headlines every day, they just come in so dire. We had JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, come out and say that we have an economic hurricane on the horizon. That's not comforting. He's concerned about this big roll off of all these bonds that the Fed's been holding on their balance sheet. He said, it's unprecedented and he's worried about the war in Ukraine. Man, oh, man. It just seems like every headline out there wherever you look, is just negativity, negativity, negativity. Thankfully, we do this podcast to counter some of that. 

This week on the tipping point: Q&A

We get a lot of questions from listeners and our clients over the last couple of weeks. So I thought we could answer a couple of them here right on the show. The first question is great because a lot of people probably have the same questions about their financial independence plan.

The first question is: My wife and I are in our 50s and are thinking about changing our lifestyle to do some traveling while we work remotely. What would your advice be towards building a million-dollar portfolio of dividend-producing stocks to supplement our income while we travel for a couple of years? This would consist of solid blue chip dividend stocks and some REIT stocks with high-paying dividends. 

The second question is: Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? In other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a bear market?

Listen to the episode for our answers to the questions above! 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Global GDP has estimated to run $94 trillion this year. The US represents only 25% of that, which says there might be some opportunity to invest maybe outside the US.
• Saudi Aramco replaced Apple as the world's most valuable company.
• Since 1936 dividends have contributed 36% of the total return of the S&P 500 according to a Bank of America. Expect payments again to grow by 13%. this year.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
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