Payne Points of Wealth
 

Payne Points of Wealth

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Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.

Episodes

Exposing Financial Untruths, Ep #86

Friday Jun 24, 2022

Friday Jun 24, 2022

What's up! It's episode 86 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling. We're in an official bear market now in the S & P 500. NASDAQ is down over 30%. The headlines get direr by the day. War continues in Eastern Europe. And Bitcoin, we warned you about Bitcoin, is melting down. Well, we're gonna break it all down for you today. We have a special guest on the show today, Lee Robinson, co-founder, and CIO of Altana Wealth, an asset management firm running all different hedge fund strategies. He predicted the credit crisis between 2007 and 2009. He's seen a lot of bull and bubble bursts, written a great book called "The Gathering Storm", has a BA in mathematics from Cambridge University, and he is a good friend of Ryan's.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Lee’s outlook on the current economic market [1:23]
  • There’s neven been an empire that hasn’t failed [5:00]
  • One piece of advice as an investor [10:01]
  • The Tipping Point [11:20]
  • The 80% lie [11:49]
  • The income for life guarantee [14:19]
  • If it ain’t broke don’t fix it [18:04]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [20:26]

Advice from Lee Robinson

In this episode, we talked with Lee Robinson. We asked him if he could share only one piece of advice, something that he's learned over the years that he could impart on the rest of us, what would it be? This is what he has to say.

"I think the biggest mistake that I see in finance is that people cannot work from forward back to the present. They get panicked, they see a company that has a profit warning because it couldn't satisfy an order. Well, those orders are still going to come, it's still a good business. So there's a lot of short-term emotion and not enough rational thought about long-term. And I think if you're investing, I'm not talking about trading. Traders are different people. They can buy high and sell higher. They can sell low and it goes lower. But as an investor—trust, try, and think forward. When you're in a pandemic and Carnival is not allowed to do any cruises, does that mean that cruising is over forever and that business is worth zero? Probably not. So I do think sometimes investors need to think I am investing for the long run. What does this business look like in the long run? And then think, well, is it too expensive today, rather than thinking I'm buying it today can it go up tomorrow? So I think investing is something people don't understand. They confuse it with trading.

This week on the tipping point: Financial untruths

For anyone who's getting close to being financially independent or going into retirement, there is this myth that you only need 80% of what you need when you're working when you're retired. 

We know that's just not true. Not only do you spend a hundred percent of what you spend today, in the first few years of retirement, you're not going to work anymore but you are going traveling, you're spending more time with your kids and your grandkids you’ll probably spend close to 120%. That's why it's so critical to have a strategy where you're updating your financial plan on a systematic basis. Our e-money portal because it updates everything in real time so it's easy for us to do a planning session if someone decides to take a longer vacation, buy

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • A group led by Walmart heir Robert Walton agreed to buy the Denver Broncos for 4.65 billion, a record in US pro sports.
  • Apple generates more revenue than any other American company. This year, the total should be around 400 billion. To boost revenue by 10% Apple needs to find 40 billion in additional sales. Growth becomes harder the bigger you become.
  • Worker swipe-ins at office buildings were recently in the 30 to 40% range in major markets, such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It was above 50% in the sunbelt markets like Dallas and Houston. People are not back to the office in droves yet.
  • US inflation is 48th highest on the list of 111 countries. Last year we were ranked 28th out of 116. countries. Inflation is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon. 

Resources & People Mentioned

Special guest Lee Robinson from Altana Wealth

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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Coping With Volatility… Are Your Emotions In Check?, Ep #85

Wednesday Jun 22, 2022

Wednesday Jun 22, 2022

What's up! It's episode 85 of Payne Points of Wealth and some days the market goes up, some days the market goes down. Some days interest rates go up, and some days they go down. So what's going on right now? Which way is the market blowing? We're going to talk about what we think is going to happen with the market and the economy. Are we going to go into this recession that more and more economists are talking about? And is inflation done with? Are we going to see peak inflation now or is it going to keep going up the rest of the year? We're going to tell you what we think for the summer and the rest of the year on how to position your portfolio and what we see in the economy ahead. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your emotions. How do you handle uncertainty? We're going to talk about the right way and the wrong way to handle volatility. Keep your emotions in check, and check it out. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Is the economy actually bad? [1:14]
  • We’ve already had the recession! [3:52]
  • A lot of tailwinds just waiting to get unleashed [7:19]
  • The Tipping Point [10:09]
  • Fear and panic [10:51]
  • Opportunism [13:17]
  • Numbness [14:25]
  • Anger [15:52]
  • Blissful ignorance [16:27]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:36]

One positive catalyst can change everything!

Everyone's talking about all the negativity, we have list upon list of what's negative right now. However, look at China, the restrictions are starting to go away, look at inflation, there's a good chance that inflation's going to come down this year. So you get one positive catalyst. Man, oh man, this market could ramp up in a hurry and you don't wanna be on the sidelines, earning nothing in cash, just trying to play catch up later. Like that's not the position you want to be in, right? I mean, you wanna be prepared for the unexpected and the unexpected being positive here, not negative because a lot of this negative news is already priced in the market. Cuz we're talking about it. 

This week on the tipping point: Coping with uncertainty

We're in a period of extreme turbulence and what we have found at our firm Payne Capital Management, is that when volatility is high and the future unclear, we all cope with uncertainty in different ways. In this episode, we will discuss some of the different emotions or mindsets that we've seen on display over the last couple of months and whether it is helping you or in some cases, hurting your financial independence plan.

The first one is fear and panic. Are you allowing yourself to make poor decisions like trying to time the market? It’s probably due to these two emotions. Then there is opportunism. We hear people say "I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to collapse." But to be able to predict that is impossible. 

Another emotion we think a lot of people are feeling right now is despondency or we'll call it numbness. Where maybe you put a lot of money into tech, disruptive technology, or Bitcoin, and now all of a sudden you're down huge. The mindset we're seeing is to sit and wait for it to come back. That can be wrong because we don't know when it's going to rebound.

Then there is an emotion that everybody gets at some point, Bob even had this happen to him. You get angry. You know when you lose a lot of money on something and then refuse to buy anymore even if it does well because you are angry about what happened.

And lastly is blissful ignorance. If your advisor isn’t talking to you about your portfolio and what you should be doing proactively. Don’t just hope and pray that they are looking out for your best interest. If they're not talking to you that's not something to be ignorant about.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Ironically, momentum stocks, which by definition should be the best performers, have been getting hit with the iShare's Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF declining 20% in 2022. The trend is not your friend!
  • In the third quarter of 2021, the $191,000,000 JP Morgan small cap sustainable leaders fund became, all of a sudden overnight, an ESG or environmentally friendly fund in one year when it lost 184 million in assets.
  • 18 months ago Zoom had a bigger market capitalization than Exxon Mobil but today Exxon is 10 times bigger than Zoom.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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If You’re Sitting In Cash Right Now… What Are You Waiting For?, Ep #84

Wednesday Jun 08, 2022

Wednesday Jun 08, 2022

What's up! It's episode 84 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets Go Up, Markets Go Down, Markets Go Sideways! We have no idea where the direction of the market is going right now. It's crazy out there. We've got good manufacturing data. We've got good employment data. Yet, it seems like something is looming on the horizon. We're gonna break it down for you. What our view is of the economy right now and how to position your portfolio best given all the uncertainty in the world. On the Tipping Point today, we've got lots of questions from you the listeners. We're going to answer some of the questions that you've sent us in the last couple of months, some really good ones that we're gonna address today to help you on your path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Is this a 2008 repeat or is it different this time? [1:08]
  • If you're sitting in cash right now what are you waiting for? [4:42]
  • How can you have a recession when everyone is employed? [7:11]
  • The Tipping Point [9:22]
  • Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? [14:57]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:04]

Is it different this time?

We're getting a lot of questions as to whether this is like the 2008, 2009 great recession, is financial panic on the horizon, or is it different this time? You know the four most dangerous words according to Sir John Templeton are it's different this time. We're seeing phenomenal economic numbers so we don't think that it's a repeat of 2008 and 2009. But when you see the headlines every day, they just come in so dire. We had JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, come out and say that we have an economic hurricane on the horizon. That's not comforting. He's concerned about this big roll off of all these bonds that the Fed's been holding on their balance sheet. He said, it's unprecedented and he's worried about the war in Ukraine. Man, oh, man. It just seems like every headline out there wherever you look, is just negativity, negativity, negativity. Thankfully, we do this podcast to counter some of that. 

This week on the tipping point: Q&A

We get a lot of questions from listeners and our clients over the last couple of weeks. So I thought we could answer a couple of them here right on the show. The first question is great because a lot of people probably have the same questions about their financial independence plan.

The first question is: My wife and I are in our 50s and are thinking about changing our lifestyle to do some traveling while we work remotely. What would your advice be towards building a million-dollar portfolio of dividend-producing stocks to supplement our income while we travel for a couple of years? This would consist of solid blue chip dividend stocks and some REIT stocks with high-paying dividends. 

The second question is: Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? In other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a bear market?

Listen to the episode for our answers to the questions above! 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Global GDP has estimated to run $94 trillion this year. The US represents only 25% of that, which says there might be some opportunity to invest maybe outside the US.
  • Saudi Aramco replaced Apple as the world's most valuable company.
  • Since 1936 dividends have contributed 36% of the total return of the S&P 500 according to a Bank of America. Expect payments again to grow by 13%. this year.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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Volatile Markets Make Bad Decisions Seem Rational, Don’t Fall For It!, Ep #83

Wednesday May 18, 2022

Wednesday May 18, 2022

What's up! It's episode 83 of Payne Points of Wealth and volatility is insane right now. We're teetering on a bear market, crypto markets have melted down. Meanwhile, all of those disruptive technology stocks are down 70-80%, and you've got more recession talk with every passing week as pessimism rules the day. What's really going on in the economy and in the stock market? We're gonna give you our view on how to play it. We've got the plan you just have to listen to it. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about all those burning questions you have right now. Questions that we get from our clients that are also applicable to you so that you can get the best plan for financial independence. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Has the FED done a good job? [3:09]
  • Volatile markets make bad decisions seem rational [7:20]
  • The Tipping Point [10:14]
  • Why are stocks and bonds down at the same time? [10:47]
  • Is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market? [13:04]
  • What influence will change of the majority party have on the stock market? [15:38]
  • What percentage should be in a conservative vehicle if I retire in a year? [17:21]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [20:36]

Rationally irrational 

The whole problem with these volatile markets is it feels so rational. It sounds rational to sit in something that doesn't go down until the volatility is over and then you can just kind of work your way back in. That sounds so rational but you know what? It's irrational. It means you have to make two perfect timing decisions. Just think about it guys, a week ago we had a market that was up 900 one day and down 1000 the next. Are you going to tell me that somebody is smart enough to time that perfectly? I don't think so. 

This week on the tipping point: Conference call Q&A

We did our conference call for clients recently (we will drop the link down below so you can check it out if you'd like) and we had a lot of questions come in. We have over a thousand clients and a lot of them had the same concerns so in this episode we will discuss some of the bigger concerns that they had that most of you probably have too.

Here are some of the questions we got. The first question that came in was why are stocks and bonds both down right now at the same time in this crazy market? Should we maintain a 60% stock, 40% fixed income/bond ratio, or move to a 70/30 ratio or something else?

The next question that came in was assuming a global recession is inevitable does it make sense for a retiree to sell stocks in advance of the train hitting the wall, in other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market?

Another good question that came in on our conference call was as the midterm elections approach, what influence will the change of the majority party in the House and Senate have on the stock market? 

Another question was at 64 years old and retiring in another year, what percentage of my portfolio should be in a very conservative vehicle? 

If you’re curious about our take on any of these questions check out the episode!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • From 1965 to 2021 Berkshire Hathaway shares generated a compound annual return of 20.1% vs the S & P 500's 10.5% a year return.
  • Some forecasters look for gold to reach $3000 an ounce in the next two years.
  • …Baby, One More Time by Britney Spears has now sold 25 million copies around the world making it the biggest selling album ever recorded by a teenage girl.
  • The Reddit crowd who jumped in when the lockdown began have now given back all their once tremendous gains.

Resources & People Mentioned

Check out the conference call we talked about here.

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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Are You A Do-It-Yourself Investor Or Is It Time To Go Pro?, Ep #82

Friday May 13, 2022

Friday May 13, 2022

What's up! It's episode 82 of Payne Points of Wealth. Another day and more of the same issues. Major volatility in the stock markets as interest rates continue to go higher. The FED continues to tighten monetary policy. In addition to that supply chains are still an issue as China is on some sort of lockdown. In addition to that, we still have war in Eastern Europe. What do you make of everything? More economists every day calling for a recession. We're gonna give you our view on exactly what's going on right now in the economy and what you should be doing with your investment portfolio. On the tipping point today, are you a do-it-yourself investor? We're going to talk about the pros and cons of running your money by yourself. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Is it for you? We're gonna get into it today. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Going into recession? [2:48]
  • Bond fund news [5:01]
  • The Tipping Point [8:46]
  • Are you living in an echo chamber? [10:29]
  • What if something happens to you as a DIYer [13:17]
  • Having an accountability partner [16:06]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:59]

Pent up demand is keeping the economy growing

We have this pent-up demand of people who have been trying to buy homes but there's been a shortage. Prices are going up and housing is still strong and there are still a lot of potential buyers out there. People are still trying to buy cars. There are still vehicle shortages. Companies are trying to expand but they can't find the workers. This pent-up demand is going to continue to keep the economy growing in spite of this inflation. In spite of all the negativity that's out there right now. 

When you're going into recession you're past pent-up demand. Right? You have demand actually starting to dial back. That's been the argument of all these economists that with inflation so high the consumer is just about to pull back. Well, we've been waiting for that be we are not seeing that. There's no consumer right now that's starting to pull back, no matter how high inflation is. This is more indicative of when you come out of a recession not when you are headed into one.

This week on the tipping point: Are you a do-it-yourself investor?

We have a very special guest on our show today financial advisor at Payne Capital Management Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria. We have been talking about the differences between investing on your own and using a financial professional. For this episode we thought we could discuss some of the pros and cons of running money on your own and whether it makes sense to make that transition from being a do-it-yourself investor to working with a financial professional. 

Frankie calls it being a self-employed investor. She says there are definitely some benefits to both, but there are, more importantly, some heavy risks, especially with the self-employed investor. When you do things yourself, you start to live in an echo chamber and have an advisor you have that third party, someone to bounce those ideas off of. Check out the episode to determine if DIY’ing is best for you or if it’s time to hand things over to the pros!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Is the U.S. dollar getting a little stretched? 
  • Flexibility has become the top worker demand. In the U.S. 2 in 5 workers desire control over their own schedules and nearly half would be willing to accept a 5% or more pay cut to get it.
  • Apple marched into 2022 as the first company to reach a $3 trillion market value making its market cap larger than all but 4 countries.
  • Mariah Carey insured her legs and vocal cords for $35 million each totaling $70 million together.

Resources & People Mentioned

Meet Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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4 Paynes in a Pod with Charles Payne, Ep #81

Wednesday May 04, 2022

Wednesday May 04, 2022

What's up! It's episode 81 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a very special guest for you today, Mr. Charles Payne, from Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. He is also the Founder and CEO of Wall Street Strategies, Inc., an independent stock market and equity research company. Charles talks about his life philosophy, his journey to success, and the state of Wall Street today. 

We're also going to talk about all the volatility in the market. We've got a recession potentially on the horizon, negative GDP growth in the first quarter, and earnings coming in strong. What does it all mean? We're going to give you our viewpoint on the stock market and the economy. Don’t miss it!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Living two childhoods [1:57]
  • The transition from the Air Force to Wall Street [7:17]
  • What should you study today to prepare for a career on Wall Street? [14:08]
  • Charles’ view on financial security [21:57]
  • Back to our regularly scheduled program…Wall Street is a zoo! [27:48]
  • Getting past the noise [31:55]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [36:06]

Making Money with Charles Payne

Charles’ childhood was his driving force behind wanting to be in the financial industry. He had two very different childhoods, he tells us about them in the episode so be sure to check it out. At 14 he told his mom he was going to work on Wall Street and at 17 she co-signed so that he could buy his first mutual fund. After four years in the Air Force Charles started his career on Wall Street at E. F. Hutton. His exceptional people skills seem to be a running theme found throughout his success. Charles loves what he does and can’t imagine retiring. You can find him weekdays on his show Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. 

2022…The year of going nowhere FAST!

It seems like we're back to where we were in January. We had an all-time record high the first week of January, then we had a big correction. Rallied back up but now we're back down to where we were corrected. It seems like we're standing still, but meanwhile, lots of economic numbers are coming in. We just had a very negative GDP down 1.4%. I say negative when you say it in the context of what the last quarter was, which was up 6.9%. Meanwhile, earnings are good, unemployment numbers are dropping, and margins are improving. 

We're going nowhere fast. There's been tons of volatility, but if you look at it over the last 10 months, unless you're talking about growth or disruptive technology, the market's been sideways. The hawks are getting more hawkish because the FED is tightening financial conditions. The bears are getting more bearish. Wall Street is a zoo!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Computer-driven trading accounts for 65-70% of daily equity activity
  • More than 4.3 billion people spend about four hours a day on mobile devices.
  • Russia's economy is smaller than New York's and technologically way more backward.
  • More than 70% of Americans don't know what an NFT is. However, 23% of millennials in the U.S. collect NFTs

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Read more

What You Need To Think Of At Each Stage Of Your Financial Journey, Ep #80

Wednesday Apr 20, 2022

Wednesday Apr 20, 2022

What's up! It's episode 80 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is now officially at a 40+ year high! The highest level since December of 1981! Are we finally there? Is the economy going to go off a cliff or is the fact that you couldn't get a ticket to Miami to go for the weekend say that the economy's in really good shape? We're gonna explain that for you today. We're going to talk about every stage of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 and what you need to be thinking about right now to make sure you're going to be completely financially independent. We're going to give you our playbook so go check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Inflation hurts! How do you offset inflation? [1:56]
  • What you DON’T want in your portfolio [3:55]
  • With all this horrible news why is the market going up? [7:16]
  • The Tipping Point [10:23]
  • 20’s [10:51]
  • 30’s [12:33]
  • 40’s [14:33]
  • 50’s [16:01]
  • 60’s [18:03]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [22:06]

This week on the tipping point: What you need to think of at each stage of your financial journey

What should you be thinking about at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, maybe even 80, when it comes to your financial journey? 

In your 20s: The best thing you can do in your 20s is to save every penny you can because compounding works best when you start early. The earlier you start the more money you'll make. Use a Roth account if you can so that your money grows tax-free for life. 

In your 30s: This is the stage where you want to start to consolidate and bring everything together into what I would call a more concerted effort, as opposed to just having a hodgepodge of investments in different places. You should also start building an estate plan and your health savings plan. 

In your 40s: When you get into your 40s, hopefully, you've listened to our advice and you have accumulated wealth, and you're at a point where you have to get serious about the savings, especially college funding. Do this with 529 plans. 

In your 50s: This is when you realize that you may not be working with the right financial advisor. If you take a look at your financial plan and realize you don't have one but instead, you have a collection of investments that were either bought or sold to you in mutual funds, annuities, stocks, and bonds. Make sure that you make those course corrections before it's too late. You can also make catch-up contributions at this age. Start looking at long-term health care as well.

In your 60s: This is when you decide when to retire, look at how much money you'll need in retirement, and how you'll draw on your portfolios to get it. This is where you have to get really strategic in your planning because now you're there.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • As of 2020, it's estimated that Americans saved over 60 million commute hours per day with remote work.
  • The electronic system was 5% of the cost of a car in 1970, it's expected to be 50% by 2030.
  • Monte Python And The Holy Grail's budget was 200,000 pounds and was raised by 10 investors contributing 20,000 each. Three of those investors were Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, and Genesis. 
  • In 1994 Jeff Bezos famously spotted that the internet was growing at 2300% per year. That made him leave his high-paying private equity job to start Amazon.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Read more

Do You Have An Emotionally Damaged Portfolio?, Ep #79

Wednesday Apr 13, 2022

Wednesday Apr 13, 2022

Hey, what's up! Welcome to episode 79 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets are going crazy! They’re going up, they're going down, they're going sideways! There has been a lot of volatility going nowhere fast as interest rates continue to climb higher. On top of that, we've got two-thirds of economists talking about a potential recession. We're going to tell you what we think about a recession and what we think the economy is going to do over the next 12 months. On the Tipping Point, we'll talk about investing with your emotions. Are your emotions are holding you back from making good investment decisions? Listen now to hear our advice on how to fix that!

 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Are things worse than they’ve ever been? [1:19]
  • One thing we see lacking in portfolios [5:20]
  • The combination you want for a healthy economy [7:56]
  • The Tipping Point [10:17]
  • The biggest overweighting culprit [13:13]
  •  When it’s appropriate to factor in emotions [15:42]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45]

Do you have a pro-inflation portfolio?

One thing we see lacking more than anything else when we look at portfolios right now is that most of them don't have what we would call a pro-inflation portfolio. There aren't enough inflation hedges in the portfolio. There are too many assets that are reliant on low-interest rates and low inflation. We're probably not going back to less than 2% inflation like we saw the last decade and interest rates aren't going back to under 1% anytime soon. It's like just not happening. 

A lot of investors still want to hold onto what did well in the last 10 years. They're still on that growth trade. They still want to own all those large mega-cap stocks like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple. Those stocks could go up, it's possible, but if we learned any lesson from the great tech bubble back in the late 90s’-00s’ it’s that a lot of these big companies like Microsoft can have a whole decade where the revenue continues to go up, the company does well, but the stock does nothing. That's one of the risks you have with a lot of these hot names. It's not that they get crushed. It's just that they don't do anything. 

This week on the tipping point: Bad emotional decisions

There are two huge emotions in investing. Fear and greed! Any decision made on either one of them has always historically been wrong. When it comes to making decisions about investments, it's extremely emotional. 

A lot of times when you make decisions, you think you're being logical but you're actually being emotional. When you act emotionally you end up making bad decisions about how to allocate your capital. So in this episode, we talk about some of the bad emotional decisions we can make and how to protect ourselves from...well...ourselves. Removing emotion will help you make good, pragmatic, long-term decisions to create wealth over time and reach financial independence. Go listen now to see if maybe you are allowing emotions to damage your portfolio, and what to do if you are!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets appreciated more than 16% a year. Whereas commodities returned about 6% a year and the NASDAQ only returned 1.6% a year. Fast forward from 2010 to now, the NASDAQ has returned 17% a year and emerging markets have only returned 3% a year, and commodities -0.15% a year. How times change!
  • Archeologists discovered prehistoric human remains, ceremonial artifacts, and possibly the footprint of an ancient dwelling on the site of a planned 75 story residential condo tower in Miami. Talk about holding back project deadlines!
  • 55 years ago, the photo session for the Beetles. Sgt Pepper's album cover took place. It cost nearly 3000 pounds, which was a huge sum at the time when album covers typically cost around 50 pounds.
  • Over the long term, history shows the stock market has returned about twice as much as residential real estate. The S&P 500 returned, 12.47% annually from 1972 to 2021 vs only 5.41% for residential housing.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
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False beliefs that could be ruining your financial life, Ep #78

Wednesday Apr 06, 2022

Wednesday Apr 06, 2022

What's up! It's episode 78 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have sparked a huge rebound over the course of the last couple of weeks. Ending the quarter, just down a little bit for the year. So what's the deal? Is this just a dead cat bounce? Markets are ready to fall off a cliff, we're going into recession because of high inflation, or is this beginning of a huge booming bull market as the economy chugs along? We're going to give you our thoughts on that, our viewpoint on where things are going today. And on the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those false notions that you have when it comes to your financial independence plan that you need to eradicate from your brain to make sure that you can be financially free.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Dead cat bounce? [1:09]
  • What will the market do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? [3:52]
  • Concerns about open-ended bond fund [6:07]
  • The Tipping Point [8:45]
  • The proverbial magic retirement number [10:13]
  • You’ll spend less money in retirement [11:53]
  • No need to plan [14:45]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [17:57]

Are rate inversions an indicator of looming recession?

What is the market going to do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? We're already starting to see some inversions in rates in that shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term rates. Every headline this week says that's a precursor to a recession. 

It's a bunch of BS. It's a terrible indicator because there have been so many times that the curve was inverted and we didn't go into recession. But economists and the talking heads on TV love to talk about this. The other part you have to think about is that the government has manipulated the curve. They have this 900 trillion dollar balance sheet where they bought all these long-term bonds, which is keeping rates artificially low. Now it's getting a little wonky, but the point is, it's a BS indicator. They always roll it out every couple of years and it doesn't necessarily mean we're going into recession. In fact, it's been disproven over and over again many times. 

This week on the tipping point: False beliefs

Clients have a lot of big misconceptions or beliefs when it comes to what it means to be financially independent. Things like how much money you should have or you know what it should look like to be financially independent. We thought we could talk about some of those false beliefs that you have that are dangerous and are probably ruining your financial life. 

It's as dangerous when you build a house without a foundation as it is to build a financial plan without a foundation of a plan. If you're just sitting there arbitrarily coming up with some number, the goal post will keep moving. Check out the Tipping Point segment in this episode to hear about the false beliefs we have come across over the years. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Southeast Asia is ditching pandemic restrictions at last! Promising an economic rebound for 650 million or so citizens. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia right now.
  • The ProShares Ultra QQQs that's three times leverage on the NASDAQ is the most actively traded exchange-traded product this year. 
  • Limited supply is helping home values. 2022 home price appreciation is estimated to hit 12%. Supply is a problem. 
  • ESG ratings - don’t base your investment picks on a rating especially when Wall Street can charge you a higher percentage on products that they say are “ESG” 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
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Finding Forgotten Assets Are Better Than Finding $$ In Your Pants!, Ep #77

Wednesday Mar 30, 2022

Wednesday Mar 30, 2022

What's up! It's episode 77 of Payne Points of Wealth and the market's finally finding some footing. We're getting some big up days. Is this just a bear market rally—a fake out—or is this the real deal? Are we're going to see all-time highs this year? We're going to talk about that along with the fact that we have interest rates...going up, oil prices...going up...inflation…going up! Are we going into a recession? So many economists are talking about it for 2023. We're going to tell you what we think you should be doing right now. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about those financial nuggets out there, those assets you forgot about long ago that you need to readdress to make sure your financial independence plan is in order. You don’t want to miss it!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Interest rates up = stock prices up [1:11]
  • What the market is starting to tell us [3:13]
  • Meanwhile on the inflation front [6:29]
  • The Tipping Point [9:16]
  • Multiple 401Ks does not make you diversified [13:29]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [17:59]

It’s not about what’s going on with inflation…today

What’s happening with inflation today isn’t what the market is pricing today. What the market is going to start pricing in today is what inflation looks like in 12 or 24 months. The truth is, no matter what the media tells you, inflation is very likely going to be lower. That's what the market is starting to tell us right now. At this point, we’ve already gotten past the fact that the FED is going to raise interest rates. It's not going to be a surprise. They have pretty much telegraphed what this year looks like with interest rate hikes. There's nothing shocking about that. What you have to ask yourself as an investor is what will the world look like 12 to 24 months from now? What will the Payne's be saying on their podcast then?

This week on the tipping point: Forgotten assets

At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we do a lot of financial projections each year. We have three certified financial planners on our staff and we do everything from a planning-based approach. One of the parts of our process—which we think is very powerful— is a financial audit. We tally up everything you have and build a financial portal so that you can get a bird's eye view of everything you're holding. A lot of times people have assets they have totally forgotten about. 

Rediscovering forgotten assets is way better than slipping on an old pair of jeans and finding $20 in the pocket! 

A common forgotten asset we see, especially with millennials and even baby boomers, are old 401Ks from past jobs. A 401K is a great tool but it's a lousy place, a terrible platform, to invest your money. When you have multiple 401Ks in your portfolio you are paying multiple fees, have limited investment options, and you won’t be nearly as diversified as you think. Check out the episode to hear all the reasons we think this is a bad idea and what a better option is for that money. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Andy Warhol’s silkscreen portrait of Marilyn Monroe will be put for auction this Spring with an asking price of 200 million. That will be the highest asking price for any piece of art at auction in history.
  • U.S. office occupancy is still just 40%, despite the phasing out of mask and vaccine mandates for 98% of the country.
  • Happy 75th birthday to Elton John this month! With 300 million records sold, 59 billboard top 40 singles, nine #1 singles, seven #1 albums he is Billboard's greatest solo artist of all time.
  • Foreign investors have dumped a record 6 billion Chinese shares in the first three months of 2022 due to fear of new coronavirus outbreaks and the risk that Western countries will sanction Beijing as it supports Russia's war in Ukraine. That might be the counter-trend. It might be time to buy Chinese stocks.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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