Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.
Episodes
Thursday Oct 13, 2022
Thursday Oct 13, 2022
What's up? It's episode 100 of Payne Points of Wealth. It's hard to believe it's been two years already! We've got unemployment still at the lowest levels in 50 years. We've got wages going up, and we've got an employment market that just won't cool off. What's the FED going to do? Will they finally pivot or are they ready to take this economy off a cliff? Are we going to a deep recession depression? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly how to play the economy, play the strong dollar, play the higher interest rates, play the conflict in Russia. There are so many issues, I can't name them all. On the Tipping Point we're going to talk about financial planning red flags. You're on your path to financial independence so what red flags do you need to avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to reach your goals?
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You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The FED pivot is coming sooner than later [1:37]
- What’s different and what are you doing to change it [4:27]
- Inflation is clearly coming down [6:23]
- The Tipping Point [9:36]
- Can you name all the investments in your portfolio off the top of your head? [10:37]
- How often are you in contact with your advisor? [14:23]
- Do you know how much income you need? [16:42]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [20:59]
A pivot is coming!
People keep saying everything's down. What we are seeing are mortgage rates up and housing prices up and even though they're down a little bit now they are still way up from where they were three years ago. Employment is up, the dollar is up, and interest rates are up. There are a lot of things that are up that we don't want to have up, but eventually, they will turn.
Here's the thing, the market's been extraordinarily volatile, and reasonably so, sentiment is incredibly negative. If you're negative right now, you're in good company. It's one of the worst sentiment readings we've ever seen in history. It's all because of Jerome Powell. We're waiting for him to pivot. Will he? Eventually, sure. Look what happened the first half of this year, we went into a bear market and then July hit. We had one of the best months in the history of the stock market in the month of July because the market was thinking we were going to see a FED pivot. When it will come we don't know, but we're closer to it now than we've ever been. Keep the faith. Stay invested. It's coming.
This week on the tipping point: Red flags to address in your financial plan.
Let’s talk about some of the red flags that we see week after week that you need to make sure you're addressing in your own financial planning.
First, can you name all the investments in your portfolio off the top of your head? If you can, chances are you're not very well diversified. Having millions in one target fund is NOT diversification.
Another red flag, how often do you hear from your financial advisor? But more importantly, how often do you meet with your financial advisor to do your annual financial physical? If you aren't in communication with your advisor, you are not getting the advice you need to have the best portfolio for your unique needs.
One more red flag for today. When it comes to your financial plan do you even know how much income you need? We find this is the baseline whenever we start the planning process. One of the first things we look at is just getting an idea of your expenses. No one likes to look at them because we know we all spend on things we shouldn't and we're afraid to see it. But man, oh man, it's so therapeutic to just get a clear idea of what you're spending on a monthly and annual basis. And from there you can solve a lot of your financial problems, but you've got to start there.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Europe is home to over 500 million people with GDP equal to 25% of the world's output in 2021. That's slightly greater than the US, which is about 24% of all global output and greater than China's 18%. You can't write off Europe.
- US energy exports to Europe surged to 43 billion in the first half of 2022. An increase over 190% from a year ago. The energy crisis getting real in Europe.
- Apple launched production of its new iPhone 14 in the India city of Chene. It is predicted a quarter of the world's iPhones will be assembled in India by 2025 up from just 3% today.
- The villa called Casa del Soul, a mansion built on Dubai's, Palm Jamira Island fetched 82.4 million when it was sold in July, the most expensive home ever to be sold in the Persian Gulf Emirate.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Oct 05, 2022
Wednesday Oct 05, 2022
What's up? It's episode 99 of Payne Points of Wealth and there is no good news. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. The FED continues to talk tough and interest rates are skyrocketing. There is a threat of nuclear war in Eastern Europe. As usual, we're going to break it down for you today and talk about our views on where everything is going. Are we going to have this huge recession that we're hearing about week after week? On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about roulette, chess, and poker and what they have to do with your financial life. Go have a listen!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- If it weren’t for mistakes the FED wouldn’t make any decisions [1:03]
- Only things going up are yields and inflation [3:51]
- Having a Revenge of the Nerds portfolio [6:55]
- The Tipping Point [10:40]
- To pay taxes or not to pay? [13:55]
- Playing stock picking roulette [17:27]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [20:58]
Finally seeing real, positive, yields!
The only thing going up this year has been inflation and short-term money market yields. As financial advisors and planners, we're in a position where we have portfolios that we can actually sink our teeth into.
You have forward earnings at about 16 times, which means stocks are valued where they are in the average PE ratio. You have bond yields that are significant, where there’s a decent return in our intermediate bond portfolio and there's great opportunity. We were more concerned in January when we saw interest rates at zero than we are today. Now we know we can generate the income, generate the total return, that we need to help all of our clients overcome unexpected inflation and taxes to achieve their financial goals.
We don't wanna have a portfolio that's cool. We want to have a portfolio that's like the revenge of the nerds, and that is the kind of market we have now! Yes, having bonds that come due, how boring. I love it! Having dividend stocks that increase their dividend every year. How boring. I love it! That's where we have to be. The key is you have to take action. If you have losses, do some tax swaps because you want to put money in the loss bank. We are taught as children to put money in the piggy bank, put some money in the loss bank, there will be gains in the future.
This week on the tipping point: Chess, poker, or roulette?
Today we compare some different strategies that we see deployed in the financial world to chess, poker, and roulette. Rollette is basically luck and how the dice roll. If it's chess, it's a real strategy. And poker we'd say is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of strategy.
The first strategy that we see deployed a lot in our industry is market timing. Another strategy that we see is deciding how much money to convert from an IRA to a Roth IRA where the money is tax-free for the rest of your life. The other one that comes up, especially when we're doing our annual reviews, is deciding on when to retire. What's the date in the future that you're going to definitively say, okay, I'm done, I'm going to live off my portfolio. The last strategy we compare is going to be picking stocks. Which of these strategies is comparable to which game? Check out the episode to find out!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- At some point in late 2022, the 8 billionth human being will enter the world ushering in a new milestone for humanity. In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion people.
- 12% of bosses surveyed by Microsoft say workers are just as productive working remotely compared to 87% of workers who argue they are more productive. Sounds like bosses want you back in the office.
- The original handwritten lyrics for David Bowie's Starman have been sold to an unidentified Aussie bidder at auction for $224,000. That's a lot of money for a bunch of lyrics written on a piece of paper.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Thursday Sep 29, 2022
Thursday Sep 29, 2022
What's up? It's episode 98 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's officially apocalypse now! The FED will not relent with interest rates. They're going to be more hawkish than ever. It seems like bad news comes on the installment plan, Putin is looking to double down on his war in Ukraine. Is this the end? Is everything going to fall off a cliff? We're going to give you our view today, we're going to tell you exactly what we think you should be doing right now with your money to make sure that you're in the best position given so much uncertainty. You, awesome podcast listeners, have been asking a lot of questions so on the Tipping Point we are going to answer some of those. You can't miss episode 98.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The stock market isn’t a video game [1:08]
- Two things you can never discount [4:18]
- Being properly prepared for a difficult year [8:12]
- The Tipping Point [10:20]
- Having ETFs in a taxable account [11:31]
- The problem with a total market ETF [15:03]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37]
The death of the consumer is greatly exaggerated
There are two things that get discounted way too much when it comes to being an investor.
First is American business. Even this year, as we've seen supply chains that are a mess, inflation's been a mess but companies have been able to navigate it relatively well. We've seen more surprises in the positive, not the negative, when it comes to things like earnings.
The second thing that you can't discount is the American's ability to spend. I don't care what anybody says, if you look at retail sales last month, even with 8% inflation, retail sales were up. People were still spending and not just on necessities. They were going to restaurants, they were buying clothes. The bottom line is the death of the consumer is always greatly exaggerated.
This week on the tipping point: Listener Q&A
Our industry tends to come with plenty of cookie-cutter advice so we get a lot of questions because our expertise lies in the planning component of managing wealth. At PCM we focus on customized financial planning. Well, we have a new place where you can submit your questions and we'll answer them here right on the show. Head over to bebullish.com and ask us anything you'd like to hear us talk about on the show.
Today we are answering two questions that have to do with ETFs. The first is from John asking if we recommend ETFs or exchange-traded funds with an expense of 0.25% or even 0.39%? The second question is from Brian who asks if the S&P is so highly weighted with FANG stocks, what's another good total market ETF to invest in during a period of rising rates? Listen now to hear our answers to these great questions!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Since 1926 the S&P 500 was positive 71 of those 96 years. On a probability basis, the market goes up 74% of the time. That's pretty good odds.
- According to bank rate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a poultry 0.13%. Ouch. Meanwhile, one-year treasury bond pays over 4%.
- Pink Floyd's, The Dark Side Of The Moon, hit number one on the Billboard Album Chart for exactly one week in 1973. It has since gone on to sell 45 million copies and has spent 960 weeks on the charts.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Sep 21, 2022
Wednesday Sep 21, 2022
What's up! It's episode 97 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are melting down. The fear is real, but could this fear go from fear to FOMO? We're going to discuss exactly what's going on. As we're recording this FedEx saw its stock drop 20%, and the CEO thinks that the world is going into a global recession. We might have a different point of view. We'll talk about that. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about some of the most significant strategy mistakes that Wall Street loves to push on you that you should avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- What side of the rip of your face rally will you be on? [1:25]
- Is it light at the end of the tunnel or a train? [3:52]
- Time to load up on the municipal bond market [8:15]
- The Tipping Point [11:21]
- Are you taking actions that you'll regret forever? [14:09]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:53]
Betting on a sure thing?
Is it time to load up on the municipal bond market? The way these governments keep spending money on state, local, and federal levels it's only a matter of time before they try to jack up our tax rates again. We've got to look at the advantages of tax-free income.
First of all, you want to be certain that you have a portfolio with permits and definitions. We want to know what we're making and when our money comes due. But when you look at the equivalent yield of a tax-free bond right now, in some cases, depending on your state income tax, you're getting anywhere from a 5 - 8% return. How much return do you need to achieve all your lifetime goals? If you can do it with more certainty, why not?
This week on the tipping point: Strategy mistakes
During times when it's very volatile and uncertain in the markets, like right now, there are a lot of strategies that Wall Street loves to sell you. We know from experience that they just don't work. We can't time the market and a lot of people tend to project the future based on their most recent experience. When there are all-time record highs, like the markets just had this past January, nobody wants to panic out. You only want to panic or time the market when the market's are down and you feel like it will only continue to get worse.
The problem is you end up taking actions that you'll regret forever. You wouldn't believe how many folks out there have liquidated their portfolio and gone into something like an annuity. We've been analyzing more annuities the past three months than ever. It's kind of like going back into the arms of an ex, it feels comfortable, it feels good, but the reality is you broke up for a reason. You're not going to get what you're looking for from the relationship!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Wedbush Securities estimates that there are now a billion iPhones worldwide, 240 million of which are at least 3-1/2 years old. This may explain why Apple earnings are expected to continue creeping higher by single-digit percentages in the years ahead.
- We think of meme stocks as something unique, but the 1960s were called the Go-go 60s' for a reason. The Nifty 50, the glamor stocks, the concept stocks, the conglomerates, and the gunslinger fund managers who touted them were rock stars. When the Nifty 50 expired in the early 70s' they had sky-high valuations that rival anything we've seen today with Xerox trading at 49 times forward earnings, Avon at 65 times forward earnings, and Polaroid at 90 times forward earnings. History may not repeat, but markets are made up of people and they certainly do.
- Dividends have accounted for 40% of stock market returns since 1930 and 54% during decades when inflation has been high like today. When inflation has been high, the stocks that have increased their dividends the most have outperformed the overall market. Dividend payments help make the stock market returns less volatile.
- The average German household is paying nearly 13 times more for power than in January of 2020, or about $38,000 versus $3000. Wow. That's a huge jump in energy prices.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Sep 14, 2022
Wednesday Sep 14, 2022
What's up! It's episode 96 of Payne Points of Wealth! Fool me once J. Powell, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you. The FED continues to talk tough when it comes to raising interest rates to combat inflation. Yet only a year ago, they said there was no reason to raise interest rates at all. Should you trust the FED? Is anything they're saying right now making sense? Should you believe it? Are we going into recession? Is inflation actually coming down? Well, we're gonna give you our viewpoint on what we think is happening right now in the economy, and what you need to be doing with your portfolio. We're also going to talk about unhealthy financial foods. The financial services industry loves to sell you lots of products that you probably don't need in your portfolio. We're gonna break that down for you. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- No one can know what’s unknowable [1:14]
- Energy’s impact on inflation [4:49]
- A huge % of your return comes from dividends [7:02]
- The Tipping Point [11:33]
- Added sugar [14:51]
- Trans fats [17:23]
- Personal trainer vs DIY [19:44]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:35]
Negativity = Opportunity
One thing we know for sure is that there's extreme pessimism out there right now. The negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife. More than one client called this week and said Michael Burry, that guy from The Big Short, he's negative now, he's bearish and calling for a big bubble burst. Well, we get these guys through every cycle. Every cycle you have somebody who made a correct call or a lucky guess and they never have a second one. Better to be right once than never? We used to have magazine covers that would tell us how things are going. Back in the 70s' Businessweek was famous for its headline, The Death of Equities. They wrote an article in 1979 saying stocks would never go up again. That was the biggest bottom of Bob's career and the best buying opportunity he's ever seen in his life. You have the same type of situation right now.
This week on the tipping point: Unhealthy Financial Food
In the financial world, there's a lot of fluff or, products and services you probably want to avoid at all costs. So I thought we could use the analogy of unhealthy financial food and talk about how there are unhealthy financial products that our listeners need to avoid at all costs.
Talk about empty calories, I was doing a proposal for a client and he brought a proposal that he'd received from one of the big banks. The proposal was 75 pages long. After going through it, I could only find about three pages worth of good information. The rest was just legalese and a bunch of what we call industry jargon.
What you see in the financial services industry are these fancy products that add on all these bells and whistles. We know that a lot of annuities out there are guilty of this. A lot of these structured products are where you only get limited downside but you get X amount of the upside. They sound sexy. They sound like really good common sense products but when you start looking under the hood at how they work, you're not getting a good deal. It's actually bad for your financial life.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Annual global sales of industrial robots and factory automation are forecasted to more than double by 2027.
- Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clearly out.
- Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clear!
- While equities are still holding up relative to bonds, there have been no monthly flows into stocks over the past half year. Bonds hate inflation, equities hate recession and risk sentiment right now is appalling.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Sep 07, 2022
Wednesday Sep 07, 2022
What's up! It's episode 95 of Payne Points of Wealth and FED chairman J. Powell has ruined everything! Just two weeks ago before recording this podcast, J Powell came out and basically said that the FED was going to continue to be hawkish with their monetary policy, and markets sold off precipitously. Is this the end? Is the punch bowl going away? Is the economy ruined? Well, we're going to talk about that on our podcast today, we're going to give you our viewpoint. And we're going to talk about critical questions you need to ask yourself if you're putting together your financial independence plan.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- How a great portfolio is like a great rental property? [2:22]
- Bulls or bears…it depends on the wind [4:43]
- Don’t double down on tech [6:58]
- The Tipping Point [11:56]
- Do people really spend less when they retire? [13:08]
- How will you fill the income gap? [15:43]
- Do you know what you own and how are your finances organized? [19:11]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [23:07]
Keep your portfolio because the rents are going up!
That eight-minute speech that J Powell gave certainly sent our clients into a tailspin. I was talking to a client last week and he asked if this was time to sell out of his portfolio. Of course not! The value of your house probably went down 10-15% in the last few months, are you selling that? Of course, the answer's no.
Owning a great portfolio is a lot like owning a rental property. With the dividends and interest, it pays you're going to collect rent until the market goes back up. Under our e-money portal, you can even pull in the value of your real estate from Zillow, so it's updated in real-time.
One client I spoke with has a lot of rental properties. He said that they were at all-time record highs and now they're down like 15% in some cases. I said well, why don't you panic out and sell? He said, why would I do that? I'm still collecting my rent and guess what I'm going to do next year? Raise it.
That's kind of how it works with the stock market. Stocks pay dividends. We just had global dividends hit an all-time record high at $545 billion. Think about that. We have increased dividends to the highest level ever and they're going to go up again next year!
This week on the tipping point: Critical questions
We thought today we could talk about certain questions that you really want to ask yourself to make sure that you're on track to what we call that proverbial financial independence. We covered some critical questions that everyone needs to answer to make sure that they're on their path. Will you really spend less in retirement? SPOILER ALERT...Probably not! Where will your income come from and how will you get it? Do you know what you own and more importantly WHY you own it? How are your finances organized? Can you generate enough returns that it keeps abreast of inflation? If you haven’t asked yourself these questions in a while (or ever) then this is an episode you will want to listen to! Go check it out ASAP!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- Small investors matter for Tesla. About 46% of shares available for trading are held by non-institutional investors. The comparable number for Google is only 15%. Small investors basically drive that stock.
- American airlines group is planning to buy up to 20 supersonic jets to speed up air travel. Boom Supersonic is developing an airplane called Overture, which is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers. American Airlines said that supersonic flights from Los Angeles to Honolulu would take only three hours or as little as half the time of a standard jet.
- A high-tech portrait of Warren Buffet topped $75,000 in bidding. It shows a grid of letters over an image of the investor that lights up to spell out several of his famous quotes. Proceeds from the eBay auction, which concluded on Buffet's 92nd birthday, will go to one of his favorite charities Girls Inc. of Omaha.
- HBO's House of Dragons, the prequel of Game of Thrones racked up 10 million viewers on its debut, a record for the network. Demand was so great that thousands of US online viewers experienced crashes.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 31, 2022
Wednesday Aug 31, 2022
What's up! It's episode 94 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a special and very different episode for you today. We have a good friend Rich Antoniello, on the podcast. He's the former CEO and founder of Complex Media, a company that recently merged with BuzzFeed. Rich talks about the entrepreneurship journey, how he came from humble beginnings back in Brooklyn, and how that impacted his view of finances. He also talks about the state of the financial services industry in general. It's a great interview, Rich is a really charismatic guy, and he's got a pretty cool take on things. We think you're going like it.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Rich roots from humble beginnings [1:04]
- Having the guts to leave the guiled cage [8:36]
- The psychology of money [15:04]
- Sold not bought [25:00]
- What is the 3.0 version of what the market has become? [32:24]
- The impact of music [42:51]
What was it like for Rich growing up in Brooklyn?
Rich says it's not just the location, but you have to think about the cultural and familial side. Both of his parents were immigrants. His mom was one of 9 and his dad was one of 8. So literally big families, both Depression kids, and education wasn’t big on either side. Then you layer on the neighborhood. It's a beautiful place to live if you want to grow up around neighbors and neighborhoods where it's basically extended family. The trade-off was that you lived a very small life because your exposure was so narrow. There were a lot of cops, a lot of firemen, and union jobs. His dad was a UPS delivery guy. The aperture of what you're knowledgeable about and what you see is limited. There were very few executives and very few financial guys. Rich's exposure to business was trying read a Wall Street Journal which was not something readily available.
But he thinks it was a great thing in that he learned foundational values. You couldn't operate within that world in any other way. These were good people, but the view of ambition and even understanding what a floor in a ceiling would be like from a career perspective was just nowhere. And he couldn't Google it back then either. The library had a whole bunch of old biographies. It was great to be able to go read about Rockefeller, but it wasn't exactly what Rich would call inspirational from the standpoint of understanding what a blueprint or a track would be from a realistic perspective for somebody like him.
Rich’s mind on money
Obviously, Rich's financial circumstances have changed drastically from his humble roots in Brooklyn. But how has that changed his perception of money and how is it the same just because of his upbringing? The way we're brought up does color the way that we view our financial situation, financial security, and a lot of the decisions we make around money.
Rich explains how his perception has changed entirely but his behaviors have not come all the way along. He's massively aggressive and understands so much more and can see the things, but there's that little voice in the back of his head that always pulls him back from being as aggressive at the edge as he'd like to be. Check out the episode to hear him go deeper on this.
Where is finance fundamentals 101
Rich thinks the lack of foundational, honest, educational, finance 101 is unbelievable. People don't like talking about it, but when somebody tries to sell them something they feel more comfortable going to Google than they do talking to somebody. They are looking for it, but nobody is offering that.
We should all have had this type of education foundationally. Ideally, it happens at a family level, but most families don't have it to give. Rich says his own father couldn't help him think about the way his life has unfolded. That's not a knock on him, he just had no exposure, education, or the wherewithal to even think about any of those things.
Why don't the leading platforms, especially the leading media platforms, provide that baseline level of understanding so that when you do talk about meme stocks and short squeezes you're not getting caught up in the hoopla but you're educated enough to look at that and fundamentally understand?
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 17, 2022
Wednesday Aug 17, 2022
What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The surprises always come in the positive [2:42]
- This time next year [6:06]
- History teaches us everything [9:01]
- The Tipping Point [12:26]
- Begin with the end in mind [13:50]
- Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]
The Market is always right!
Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward.
That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing.
This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle
We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years.
If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people.
That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%.
- Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015.
- Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man.
- Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive!
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
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Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Embrace the gloom [1:05]
- You can’t be all or none [3:58]
- Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00]
- The Tipping Point [10:47]
- Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32]
- The 2 out of 3 rule
- Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]
There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market!
Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with.
We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash!
This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products
In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for:
- Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print.
- Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer.
Check out the episode to hear us explain why!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age.
- Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms.
- Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years.
- New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
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Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view.
On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help?
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32]
- What the FED is doing is working [5:55]
- What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21]
- The Tipping Point [12:43]
- Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50]
- What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]
Are the lows already behind us?
Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation.
It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat.
This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions?
The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised.
This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
- When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone.
- About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity.
- An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million.
- Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it.
Resources & People Mentioned
Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify