Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.
Episodes
Wednesday Sep 01, 2021
Wednesday Sep 01, 2021
What's up! It's episode 50 of Payne Points of Wealth, hard to believe we're 50 episodes in and we've been doing this podcast for a year. We thank you for your support. As always, there is a lot going on right now in the economy and the stock market. We have the Delta variants still running rampant around the world. Is it going to slow the economy down is the big question on the investor's mind? As we're recording this right now, the government's looking to pass trillions of dollars. What impact is that going to have on the economy? What impact does that have on you and how do you position yourself to win right now as the market continues to go higher? We're going to break it down for you. We have a special guest on the tipping point, Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations. She’s also the podcast host of Makers of the USA. She talks with business owners all across the country. She's going to give us the pulse on that so we can get a better idea of what's going on in the economy.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Never trust the consensus [1:30]
- Are we coming into a melt-up? [4:18]
- Which market are they talking about? [6:12]
- The only place there is no opportunity [8:35]
- The Tipping Point [10:52]
- What is a maker? [12:42]
- When unemployment benefits end will we see more job applicants? [15:24]
- Will small businesses keep struggling, retire, or sell out to large corps? [19:22]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [24:24]
Never trust what every investor believes in unison
In a year where volatility is basically non-existent. The market was actually down last week. Like 1%, if we can even call that down at all. That just seems to be the theme, there's no sell-off. One thing we've talked about a lot on this podcast is never trust the consensus. Never trust what every strategist and every investor believes in unison. I hear it over and over again that we're in the weakest part of the year, until Halloween, and that the market's probably going to sell 10-15%, the market needs to have a correction. When everybody's looking for the same thing, we know it doesn't happen and this market just won't let you in. There's a lot of people in cash sweating it out right now.
This week on the tipping point: The pulse of America
Our guest Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations is also the host of a really cool podcast, Makers of the USA. Basically, Kristan goes out and talks to a lot of business owners. American-made, niche type of companies. She explains that her definition of a maker is a broad term, you have your woodworkers, metal workers, folks that make products but she also considers a maker to be a musician, photographer, or videographer.
The Payne point that has been such a challenge amongst these makers and their mom and pop shops is they have to utilize their personal assets or personal funds to stay afloat. And like many businesses they are having a hard time with the scarcity of materials and finding workers. Unlike big companies in this community, they find it scary to increase their product prices because they're afraid of losing customers. They don't want to miss out on the customers they already have because some sales are better than no sales. Check out the episode for the full scoop from Kristan Vermeulen!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
In June, the median home price was a record $363,000. Up 23% year over year. Better than the S&P 500! Unbelievable, with all this money a wash around the world, everything's being bid up, whether it's real estate, stocks, businesses, everything but gold actually. But it isn't better than the S&P because the S&P pays a dividend. Last I checked, every month I'm paying real estate taxes. I'm paying utility bills. A home's great, but it's a place to live. As an investment, I'll take the S&P 500 any day of the week.
Resources & People Mentioned
Kristan Vermeulen Knotical Public Relations and host of Makers of the USA
Nick Rossi and his episode on Makers of the USA
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
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Saturday Aug 28, 2021
Saturday Aug 28, 2021
What's up! It's episode 49 of Payne Points of Wealth and the world is in flux. We've got the Delta variant of the Coronavirus raging, which is causing more lockdowns and disruptions in the economy. The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan, adding geopolitical risk to the global economy. In addition to that, we've got infighting on Capitol Hill. What else is new? They're looking to spend trillions of dollars. Are our taxes going to go through the roof? Is inflation just going to run wild? We're going to address that today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about financial disasters with your financial plan. What mistakes you don't want to make, that you need to avoid at all costs. Things we've seen over and over again that you need to avoid. We're going to break it down.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- What our podcast & the market have in common [1:15]
- If everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity [4:34]
- The French market is kicking the NASDAQ’s butt! [7:39]
- The Tipping Point [10:08]
- Is your 401k run by a fiduciary? [12:13]
- Keeping your risk in check with a balanced portfolio [15:17]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [19:48]
Where to place your concerns
The market always climbs a wall of worry. There's always gotta be a headwind because if everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity. COVID of course is a risk right now, but we've already seen that movie, the market doesn't drop on the same news twice.
Meanwhile, you've got this infrastructure bill, which has gone from 3.5 trillion dollars down to a half-trillion dollars of new spending spread over 10 years. That's not even going to move the meter a little bit on the market, but we do have inflation. Inflation is something we should all be concerned about.
This week on the tipping point: Financial disasters
We’re blowing the whistle on the biggest scandal in the history of the financial market since the 1900s, the mutual fund industry. We all know from every study that's been done that no money manager can outperform their underlying index. So what do they do? They take money managers and sell mutual funds and they churn the account every year, charging you more, giving you a lower return, and having you pay more taxes. If that's not a scandal, I don't know what is.
The other big issue we see right now, being in a big booming bull market is a lot of times the risk in your portfolio becomes outsized and you don't even know it. Because the market has gone up by 100% since last March when you were 50 or 60% in the market, but now you're 80, 90% in the market because there’s been so much growth. You've got to keep that risk in check. At some point, we will get a huge market sell-off or a crash and if you're not allocated correctly ahead of time, you're out of luck. Check on it right now, while things are going well, that's the time you have to make those decisions.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
In the 70s, the inflation of that decade was largely a result of the explosion in energy prices. That, to a major extent, reflected oil-producing countries refusing to be paid in the ever appreciating US dollar. Could it happen again? A lot of bad things happened in the seventies like bell-bottoms and leisure suits and Bob's got pictures to prove it, but there was definitely inflation. In fact, there was hyperinflation, but a lot of it had to do with lack of productivity growth. So it wasn't just the oil companies not producing enough oil. There were a lot of other things going on that led to hyperinflation, high-interest rates, and basically the biggest bull market in bonds.
You may be hearing a lot of arguments that we're going into the 70s again with hyperinflation. We are going to see inflation but productivity, which is a big component of what's happening right now, is going through the roof. This is not like the 70s, that's a positive that says this economy is a lot different and a lot better than it was in the 1970s.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 18, 2021
Wednesday Aug 18, 2021
What's up it's episode 48 pain points of wealth. And as summer's rolling along here so is the economic data. We see unemployment down to 5.4% and the economy isn’t even fully reopened yet. It's a phenomenal number! We have the unemployment benefits dropping off in September, what's that going to mean for company profits and for the economy? And inflation, inflation numbers, still looking strong, no matter what the government tells you. We're going to talk about all that today. We’re also talking about the economic data, what you can expect from earnings this year, and what you should be doing with your money! On the tipping point, where we pinpoint the Payne point having the biggest impact on your wealth, we're going to give you our rules for investing. Rules that you can apply to your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence! Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- More jobs than workers to fill them! [1:15]
- Bullishness is cooled off and a bull market doesn’t let you in [3:46]
- Higher stakes [6:28]
- The Tipping Point [9:08]
- The age old, excuse why we don't want to diversify [14:20]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42]
Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think.
We recently had a client that had quite a bit of cash accumulated but didn't want us to invest it because they'd like to have some money on the sidelines in case this market pulls back. We had to explain that they're getting less than a 1% return in the money market. That they have no idea what's going to happen in the future. What if it never happens? Were they just going to let it sit on the sidelines forever?
That's the sentiment of not only our clients but a lot of the investing public. In a big booming bull market, the biggest problem is that it doesn't let you in. There are so many professional money managers, high net worth investors, and under-invested bears and bulls who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get the dip that came last March. They're thinking they’re going to buy stocks when they're cheap because they missed the opportunity to get in when they should have.
That's why you always have to have a strategy. Always be fully invested. Always be invested based on your goals because the market doesn't accommodate. Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. And if you're not in, you are missing out!
This week on the tipping point
When it comes to the finances of the families we advise, we have some definitive rules that we apply to every financial plan that we work on. Let’s discuss one of the top principles that listeners can apply to their own financial planning and investing. That being, when it comes to investing, there's no reward without risk but if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. That's why we have bubbles. People would rather invest in something that's bubblicious that sounds so good, so sexy, so hot, how could you lose? There's tremendous risk in SPACs, crypto, and hedge funds!
Anything that can go up big can go down big. Crypto is a great example of that. We've seen a wild roller coaster ride in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, it was only a few years ago in 2017 when it went down 82%. And you’d be foolish to think that any asset class that can go up hundreds of percent, can't go down 80, 90% as well and that it can't happen several times. The opposite is also true in types of investments where they guarantee a certain return. But the reality is that that return may not keep up with inflation. So you sacrifice longer-term returns for “safety”.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
With nearly 3/4 of US workers fully vaccinated, many companies are trying to get workers back in person. However, based on a recent survey, about 40% of employees say they'll resign if they have to go back into the office five days a week. I really find it surprising that companies are pushing for people to be back in the office because productivity has gone through the roof. That's a hidden fact of finance that clients I've shared that with are surprised to hear, that productivity actually went up. But think about it. You're not sitting in traffic waiting to get to the office. You're not in the airport, flying out to see a client. Eventually, we're going to do more face-to-face meetings, but I think we have this hybrid workspace going on forever.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
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Wednesday Aug 11, 2021
Wednesday Aug 11, 2021
It's episode 47 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's rinse, wash, repeat as earnings just keep coming in better and better as of this recording. Tech companies are coming out with earnings this week, and they're just blowing the doors off estimates. No surprises there. Meanwhile, this new variant of the COVID virus is running rampant around the globe. Is that going to slow economic growth? Is that going to be a problem for the stock market? And Bitcoin is having a revival. Is Bitcoin the currency of the future? Maybe it is now. We're going to break it all down for you. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about mindless diversification. What mindless ways do you diversify your money that is slowing progress to your goals? We're going to tell you exactly how to diversify your money. We've got a great show for you, check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- A bull market waits for no one [1:17]
- Financial engineering [3:36]
- Negativity about good news [5:27]
- Supply & demand [8:31]
- The Tipping Point [10:55]
- You don’t want an all or none strategy [13:08]
- Overlap, a risk hot spot [16:57]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [20:43]
What investing is NOT...
You may think investing is about making money or outperforming. It's not. It's about getting that return on investment that you need to achieve to get to your goals. That's why we created the A to B approach and it's at point A where you build that foundation of passive income streams that you have to incorporate into your plan. Because you have to make the right decisions. You can make some really bad decisions on the most important income streams of your life, but do you want to?
This week on the tipping point: Mindless Diversification
One of the most critical aspects of anyone's financial plan is income. Not only do you have to have an income plan, but is your income diversified? As we know from the 2000 or so families that we manage at our firm mindless diversification is mindless. Not only is it mindless but when you have mindless diversification, it's a minefield.
You may think you have a lot of different investments and that you actually have true diversification. However, as we know Wall Street loves to sell you what's working the best, in many different forms. You may own a growth fund over here and it has a different name on it than the other growth fund you own over there, but they are all the same. Or owning something like cryptocurrency and growth stocks, a lot of times, because they're working at the same time when the music stops, they're probably all going to stop working at the same time as well. And that's not true diversification.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
The housing market's fundamentals are strong from the explosion in births around 33 years ago, consumers born then are entering their peak years for starting families and buying homes. The current situation is nothing like the bubble of the 2000s when one person was buying four houses as speculation. There's a generation that's bigger and more impactful than the boomers. They're no longer on the couch in their parents' basement. They're buying homes. They're making big money.
One out of every three new clients that come through our door is a millennial. It's an ongoing bull market with the biggest generation, since Bob's favorite, the baby boomers. It also stands in complete contrast to all the videos out there talking about a big real estate crash coming. Based on that supply-demand demographics right now, we're probably not going to see some sort of housing crash.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Aug 04, 2021
Wednesday Aug 04, 2021
What's up! It's episode 46 of Payne Points of Wealth and it was a crazy week on the street of dreams. We had a mini sell-off or mini correction on Monday as markets looked like they were ready to crash, but markets were marching higher by Tuesday. Earning seasons got off to an awesome start! Company’s earnings are blowing away estimates, Economic data keeps coming in stronger and stronger. Is the party going to continue? What's going to happen between now and the end of the year? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly what's going on right now. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial catastrophes. What could derail your entire financial plan? What do you need to be aware of to avoid any sort of disaster in your financial life? We're going to give you our blueprint for that.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Delta variant headlines driving the market [3:22]
- Expect unexpected booms [5:48]
- Everything is at a peak. Are stocks at a peak too? [7:47]
- The Tipping Point [11:03]
- Losing a spouse and access to your finances [11:59]
- Taking more risk than necessary [16:46]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [19:36]
Valleys in the mountains
Last time we recorded this podcast the market was at all-time record high. Here we are a week later recording the podcast and the market is at an all-time record high. What correction are you talking about?
It happened so quickly. We saw some sectors sell-off like 5%, energy was down big on Monday and you just thought, okay, here it comes. We're going to get that proverbial market correction, where markets are going to sell off between 10 and 15%. Gird your loins, as someone we know used to say, but it just didn't happen. The next day all of a sudden the market turned and it hasn't looked back.
A real-world example of this is a client called on Thursday in an absolute panic because they checked their account on Monday. How come the market's crashed? We're losing all of our money. Is this the end? And I said, did you look at your account today? They said, no, so I said look at it today and tell me what you see. They went and looked, whew, everything's back to normal. I said one cold day doesn't make a winter.
This week on the tipping point: Financial catastrophes
Not being involved in your finances can be a catastrophe. It seems like in every single relationship with two spouses involved, there's always one extremely interested spouse, the one who pays attention, and stays on top of everything. Then there's the spouse who isn’t, the one that doesn't care or doesn’t know. And that's a scary thing. We see this a lot. Suddenly, one spouse passes away, and the other spouse is grieving because they just lost the person they love more than anyone else in the world, and they also have to get on top of this financial mess. What we've found is there's no excuse, with all the technology we have, not to get financially organized.
One of the things we use here at Payne Capital Management is our 360 Portal, which is an electronic catchall for all things financial. It's got a document storage vault. It goes so far as to allow you to add someone onto that account so they know where everything is if something were to happen to you.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
Domestic production of semiconductors has been declining for decades today. Only 12% of semiconductors are manufactured here in the good old USA. Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company alone makes up 56% of market share in certain global markets for advanced technologies. This is not the only thing that gets manufactured overseas. And that's why it's so important to not just be invested in the US but to also be invested overseas, especially in those emerging markets.
The federal deficit is now 1.3 times the size of the GDP here in the US. That's the highest it's been since the end of World War II. Plus the US has about $20.5 trillion worth of accumulated debt. If rates rise by one percentage point, that's another $285 billion of interest expense for the US government annually.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Jul 21, 2021
Wednesday Jul 21, 2021
It's episode 45 of Payne Points of Wealth. As I'm recording this right now, inflation numbers are through the roof! We’ve been warning you about it. Everyone's saying inflation has been transitory, but apparently not. Inflation numbers came in way higher than expected. We're in the midst of earning season. Companies are crushing their earnings right now. So that coupled with inflation, what does it mean for you? What does it mean for your portfolio? What's our view of the economy? We're going to break it down for you today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about your financial independence roadmap. How do you map out financial independence? We're going to give you our viewpoint—having been doing this for a collective 75 years—on how to get yourself in a position to be financially free.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The BIG news this week [1:18]
- Will earnings call surprises be about labor costs and shortages? [4:37]
- Is the market going to crash? [7:32]
- The Tipping Point [9:36]
- Is making money a goal? [10:32]
- Risk is the key, only take the risk that you need [13:21]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44]
What we expect to hear from earnings calls over the next couple of weeks
We're in earnings season. It's no secret earnings are going to be absolutely phenomenal. Earnings are going to blow the doors off. We expect that to happen and of course, the markets are forward-looking so it's not exactly a surprise. What the surprises are going to be— when you hear these earnings calls over the course of the next couple of weeks— is how much are their labor costs are going up? How much of the raw material costs go up and how much of those costs are going to pass on to you and me, the consumer, I'm going to guess a lot of it is going to get passed on to us. And that is simply inflationary.
This week on the tipping point: Preparing more effectively and minimize the hazards on your way to becoming financially independent
Over the years we have found that becoming financially independent is a journey, not the destination. So join us in this episode to hear us discuss how to prepare more effectively and minimize the hazards along the way to becoming financially independent.
Financial planning is what it's about investing with the end in mind. You would think this is only for new investors or somebody who's got a little bit of money, but it applies to everybody.
When someone comes in with money and asks "How do I invest it?" We ask "What are your goals?" But “I want to make money” is not a goal. At the end of the day, what does that mean? There's nothing tangible about it. When you invest your money without any sort of purpose to it, it's hard to stick to a strategy. Why do you need your money to grow? So that you can retire or be financially independent?
Having enough money so that you don't have to work again (unless you want to) is definitely a goal to shoot for! Check out the episode for more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
A randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money based on statistical evidence. In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy. That's why over the last 10 years, 85% of all large-cap fund managers have underperformed their underlying index and these are supposed to be the pros on Wall Street. I can't imagine that an individual investor would be all that successful trying to pick stocks if the fund managers can't even do it. All the odds and probabilities are against you yet we love to pick individual stocks. Why not just own an index and win?
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Jul 14, 2021
Wednesday Jul 14, 2021
What's up! It's episode 44 of Payne Points of Wealth and we saw a market correction this past week or a little bit of a sell-off, but the major indices now sit at all-time highs again as I'm recording this. But the question is out there... is the market topping out? Are we starting to see a peak? Is the market ready to crash? Is this sugar high, those trillions of dollars, that the government's created finally coming to an end? We're going to break it down for you and give you our view of the rest of the year when it comes to the economy and the stock market. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about a covered call strategy. You may have heard about this. Is this a strategy you should be thinking about with your portfolio to build wealth? We're going to break down what a covered call strategy is and our thoughts on it. Is it appropriate, not appropriate? We’re going to tell you about our new cryptocurrency BobCoin! You need BobCoin in your portfolio and we're going to tell you why!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The correction… if you blinked you missed it [1:34]
- The Market is smarter than Wall Street [3:24]
- The biggest problem with DIY investors [6:14]
- Getting into the global market [8:13]
- The Tipping Point [12:01]
- BobCoin [16:23]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42]
Venturing outside of the US market could pay big
With treasury yields at 1.3%, it makes dividend yields — which are over 2% for a lot of US stocks — very attractive. But there are other places to be than in the US. It looks pretty good around the world right now. Biden came out and said he's going after big tech. We're seeing all these antitrust suits against big tech. Not to mention the valuation or how high the prices are on a lot of these big tech stocks and if you own the S&P 500, that's 22% in five companies, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. That's not diversification and the headwinds are there. They're real.
The US market isn't the only game in town! Europe looks freaking awesome right now. I never thought I would say that. But when you start looking at vaccination rates going up, dividend yields, cheaper stocks, there are so many reasons why you need to diversify your money right now. To make that a little bit more real, when you say cheaper, the S&P 500 trades at twenty and a half times its forward earnings right now. Europe on the other hand only trades at sixteen and a half times its forward earnings. I would say that's a huge discount. Buy low, sell high, that's the name of the game.
This week on the tipping point: Covered Call Strategy
This week on the tipping point we are discussing a listener question.
“I listen to your podcast every week and appreciate the way your team keeps me grounded. I was wondering what your thoughts are on a covered call strategy. I generally stay away from Reddit but my son sent this to me and I wonder why I never hear professional investors talk about such strategies. I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this.”
The strategy in question is a covered call and we used to use them.
There are two components to a covered call strategy. You buy shares of any stock that's publicly traded. The other way to invest in that same stock is called an option. An option is a very speculative way to invest because it has a finite period of time to where it exists. So if you think about casino gambling, the stock is the house is the casino and the option is the better.
You have this contract and you're giving someone the right to buy your stock at a certain price — ideally, for more than you bought it — and they pay you a premium. Not only do you get the dividend on the stock, but you're getting this premium on top of that. Sounds sexy, right? You're getting all this income on your stock, it's a no-brainer. Why wouldn't everybody do this?
Most people who buy call options, lose all their money. Of course, that is until they don't. When they don't lose money, it means the market made a gigantic move and that's the problem with the strategy when the market moves big, like it had this last year, you end up having to sell out of the market and you don't get all of the return you deserve. Listen to the episode for the full story on this strategy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
The S&P 500 averages a whopping 21.8% in a newly elected Democrats inaugural year. If the past few weeks are any indication it's playing out perfectly again this year. Believe it or not the first year in a presidential cycle under a Democratic presidency, typically has at least a 20% return. You wouldn't think that because of what the administration has been proposing, higher taxes, more estate taxes, reducing wealth, and you'd think that would be counterintuitive to investing in the stock market. It turns out it's not the case. If that's the case, we have another 10% plus to go. Again, market melt-up. It's coming. You heard it here first!
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wednesday Jul 07, 2021
Wednesday Jul 07, 2021
It's episode 43 of Payne Points of Wealth and the major indices continue to March higher. Everything is focused on the fed right now. Are they going to raise interest rates? Are they going to do it next year? The year after? Is the economy getting too hot? Is it going to slow down? Are we just going to get one big burst of demand from people with their stimulus checks before everything slows down and the market crashes? Well, that's what's on investor's minds today. We're going to address all those issues. We're going to give you our playbook this week for how you have to think about the markets and the economy. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about all the biggest concerns our clients at Payne capital management have right now when it comes to their portfolio and financial plan so that you can address the same issues in yours.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- The market is partying like it’s 1999 and the Fed is trying to take the punch bowl! [1:16]
- Let’s be real… what we know [3:25]
- Value stocks are where the money is right now [6:54]
- The Tipping Point [11:16]
- Should you be doing anything to lower your taxes? [16:40]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:26]
Who cares if the Fed raises interest rates in two years!
It doesn't matter what Jay Powell says or when they're going to raise interest rates, the market's going to determine it way before they do. And let's be real here, we have outrageously cheap money. We've got trillions of dollars that consumers are sitting on and we know consumers drive the US economy. It's all about spending money. We know wages are going up. We've got a labor shortage. We've been talking about this week after week. And at the end of the day, if you're an investor, it's all about earnings going up. And earnings continue to come in better and better. Companies are going to make a lot of money and prices are going up. What else do we need to know? It doesn't matter if the Fed's going to raise interest rates in two years. Who cares? It's not news.
This week on the tipping point: Pressing financial issues people are facing
One question we are getting from clients right now is, is my portfolio in a good position for inflation? What are we going to do if inflation goes to where it was back in the 1970s? It’s an issue that should be on everybody's mind. It’s been on Bob's mind since the day he started back in 1975. Inflation is real, even though it's hidden, it's insidious, it's hideous, but it's always there. It's constant. We're hearing all about what's going to happen with this coming inflation, but what about the inflation that's already here? We run financial plans for our clients every day and we do these wealth projections. We're showing that even at 2% inflation, the cost of living is going to double every 20 years and a lot of you aren't prepared for that.
The other question we're getting is, should we be doing anything to lower our taxes? How are we going to pay for all this stimulus and government spending? You don't need to be an economist to figure out that taxes are probably going up. Someone's going to pay for these trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects and all of the benefits that we've been giving out over the course of the last year. So the question is, how do you prepare for higher taxes? Give unto Caesar that of which is Caesar's, but don't give him any of yours. In other words, don't pay more taxes than you have to and there's a lot of things in your portfolio that you can do to reduce the amount of taxes you're paying. Things like owning exchange-traded funds or municipal bonds, for example. Check out the episode for more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
In a recent research paper, under-performance at public retirement plans was mainly attributed to overpaying for alternative asset managers who could be replaced by cheap index funds, saving something like $70 billion a year. Here's a little hidden fact of finance... the markets are a zero-sum game so if somebody's winning, that means somebody's losing. Does it surprise you that public retirement plans are on the losing end? No shock here.
We all get offered all these alternative and brokerage products, hoping that we can gain the market. If I'm a $30 billion pension plan who has access to the best managers and they can't gain the market, what chance do you and I have? Low-cost indexes or the name of the game! I wish I could let every public retirement plan know my favorite Bob-ism and that's “Wall Street is full of ordinary people promising to give you extraordinary results.”
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Wednesday Jun 30, 2021
Wednesday Jun 30, 2021
It's episode 42 of Payne Points of Wealth and the Fed has come out and admitted that inflation might not be transitory. Just like we've been telling you week after week. They're looking to maybe raise interest rates sooner than expected. No kidding! However, in other news, the bond market interest rates actually went down. So what's the deal? Is inflation transitory? Is inflation here to stay? Are interest rates going higher, lower? We're going to break it down for you today on the show. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about pain points that you have when it comes to your finances. What's stopping you right now from getting on your path to financial independence. We're going to talk about the psychology of money and some of the things that you need to be dealing with when it comes to your finances to get over those mental hurdles.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Is this a breather for commodity prices and inflation or a new trend? [1:24]
- Thinking about the big picture [4:23]
- You heard it here first! [7:10]
- The Tipping Point [10:41]
- The fear of running out of money [11:14]
- Anxiety about taxes [15:03]
- Fearing an impending market crash [17:08]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [21:14]
A breather for commodity prices and inflation or a trend?
CPI, consumer price index, which is the measure of inflation was up 5% year over year in May. That's a huge number. We haven't seen inflation like that in literally decades. Prices are going up everywhere. As we were recording this oil was at $73 a barrel. Inflation's everywhere.
Meanwhile, lumber has dropped 45% since May. Copper futures are down now 12% from their record high and all of a sudden these commodity prices, which have been so strong are starting to weaken. So maybe it is transitory.
When it comes to markets, one of the dynamics that you have is that nothing goes in a straight line. Yes, commodity prices have come down but look at copper, for instance, it's still up 50% from a year ago, even though it's come down in the last couple of weeks. I mean, commodity prices are still way higher than they were. When you're thinking about your investment portfolio specifically, it's not about winning the battle. It's about winning the war. And the question is, is this just a breather for commodity prices and inflation? Or is this a new trend?
This week on the tipping point: Pain points holding you back from financial independence
Everyone has a specific pain point. Something that’s holding you back when it comes to getting to that place of financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of those bigger pain points that we experience and how to get over them so we can ditch the anxiety when it comes to our money.
In the episode, we talk about the pains of taxes and market crashes but one of the biggest fears clients seem to have is running out of money. Especially when they are in the transitional phase of having an income to tapping into their wealth in the distribution years. Healthy fear is a good motivator but going overboard can suck the fun out of your life in the here and now. Check out the episode for tips on managing this balance!
This week’s hidden facts of finance
Despite a jump in taxes during World War II, total disposable personal income in 1944 was double what it was in 1940. America's gross domestic product tripled from 1940 to 1950 in dollar terms. The economy just boomed after the war. Just because taxes are going up doesn't mean that the economy is going to suffer or your personal income is going to suffer? So don't be afraid of taxes. You have to make money for the taxman to take money!
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
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Wednesday Jun 23, 2021
Wednesday Jun 23, 2021
What's up! It's episode 41 Payne Points of Wealth. As always, a lot is going on right now. We're starting to see inflationary pressures cool off a little bit. Tech stocks on the move again. Is it time to adjust your portfolio? Is inflation really transitory? The Paynes are going to break down the three major forces that are driving everything economically right now, everything in your portfolio that you need to know about. And on the tipping point today, we're going to talk about doing research. There's a lot of good ways and bad ways you can educate yourself with all the information out there. We're going to show you how to dissect the information, pick out good information versus bad financial information. So you can make some better decisions.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Force #1: Labor shortage & irreversible wage increases [1:28]
- Force #2: The weaker dollar [4:28]
- Force #3: Supply chain pressure [8:00]
- The Tipping Point [12:07]
- Bad information from talking heads on tv [12:36]
- The most dangerous thing to your personal and financial health [15:01]
- A good investment strategy allows you to ignore the noise [18:38]
- Hidden Facts of Finance [23:08]
- A thank you from the Paynes [26:01]
Labor inflation and weak dollars
Business owners are complaining about things becoming more expensive and that they can't get anybody to work. And that people that are coming to work are demanding higher pay. That's the big underpinning issue here when you talk about inflationary pressure. Lumber costs are coming down now, but they just tripled, it's not going to triple again. The longer-term stickler when it comes to inflation is labor costs. When you have to pay your employees more, you can't just say, you know what, I know I gave you a raise, but now I'm going to lower your income. It's very hard to reverse that trend.
The king dollar seems to have fallen off the throne. It's been going down now for almost 12 months. The dollar has been weak since last March when all the stimulus started. That's how it works, right? If the government keeps printing more money, it's called dilution. It's a simple concept where the more dollars you print, the less valuable they are. Last time I looked the government's looking to print another $6 trillion or so over the course of the next year. So that's very bad for the dollar.
The third leg of this stool is supply chain pressure. Check out the episode to hear more about that!
This week on the tipping point: Good and bad ways to educate yourself about finances
We all want to feel informed about our options when it comes to making decisions about our finances. So we thought we could discuss some of the good and bad ways we try to educate ourselves when it comes to our finances and the best way that we can inform ourselves to make sure we're always making the best decisions. Unfortunately, most of the bad financial information that our clients talk about comes from watching tv and the internet.
A good investment strategy— like the ones we build— is built so that you can ignore all the noise. You have to build a strategy that drowns out all the current opinions because good investing is not about what's happened currently. It's what's going to transpire over the next couple of decades.
This week’s hidden facts of finance
The total number of internet connections globally will increase from 0.76 billion today to 3.6 billion by 2025. Hyper-connectivity impacts other unstoppable trends, including the rise of Asia. Many millions of people in Asia will gain internet access for the first time transforming their consumer behavior. You've got one of the largest increasing populations in the world getting connected to the best shopping wall in the world. I think being an investment in emerging markets is going to help in the future here guys.
Resources & People Mentioned
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris
- http://PayneCM.com
- Follow on Twitter
- Follow on Facebook
- Follow on LinkedIn
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify