Payne Points of Wealth
 

Payne Points of Wealth

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Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.

Episodes

Your EGO is Destroying Your Financial Independence!? Ep #107

Wednesday Dec 14, 2022

Wednesday Dec 14, 2022

It’s episode 107 of Payne Points of Wealth and economic data continues to come in relatively strong. Meanwhile, inflation is starting to plummet, whether it's oil prices, lumber costs, supply chains easing. We're starting to see some relief within the economy. Is this a good thing? Is this a bad thing or is this just a fake out? As Wall Street continues to tell us the economy is about to fall off a cliff? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your EGO and why it's ruining your financial independence plan.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Mortgage rates are coming down [1:28]
  • The Dow Jones did 20% over two months [2:05]
  • They keep saying it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to have a recession [2:24]
  • The banks are making a huge profit on your cash right now [3:50]
  • Investor sentiment is really negative right now [5:45]
  • Latin America is hot, the 14% for the year. [6:50]
  • The Tipping Points [11:50]
  • No one can beat the market. [12:40]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]

This week on the tipping point: Your ego is ruining your financial independence plan.

And I would say that one of the biggest mistakes investors make when you're trying to plan for your financial independence is you let your ego get in the way. And nothing makes for a worse financial plan than letting your ego dictate a lot of your financial decisions.

There's never been a company or an individual that's been able to consistently outperform the market. But what do people do? They've got to try and prove that because "My ego says I can do it. I'm going to go out there and underperform, even lose money trying."

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • A recent survey shows 84% of companies are planning to hire in 2023.
  • Random length lumber for January delivery settled at $423.80 per 1000 board feet on November 29. That's down 63% for the year.
  • In 1976, the Eagles released Hotel California selling 32 million copies worldwide, making it the sixth best-selling album of all time.

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Don’t Invest In The Market You Want, Invest In The Market You Have, Ep #106

Wednesday Dec 07, 2022

Wednesday Dec 07, 2022

What's up! It's episode 106 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy is looking a-okay! We've got the market rebounding into the end of the year. We've got wages going up, unemployment still low, and inflation is coming down. Are those economists and strategists on Wall Street actually, right? Are we going to fall off a cliff? Are we going to recession? Well, we're going to give you our viewpoint on that. We'll also give you our 2 cents on exactly where the economy's going. On the Tipping Point, we've got a special guest, Anthony O'Neill, a debt specialist. He's going to talk about money, his life, and relationship to money. It's a great show! Check it out.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Missed opportunity in the international markets [2:01]
  • Spending is still strong [7:18]
  • The Tipping Point [9:14]
  • Anthony’s background with money [10:19]
  • The lack of financial education [15:09]
  • Anthony’s mindset when it comes to wealth building [19:31]
  • If you're throwing a Hail Mary pass you might be in trouble. [25:37]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]

It's hard to be an investor

You go back to 2008 when we started Payne Capital Management, we believed it was one of the greatest bull markets in history. We were right on the doorstep of it. Everybody was pretty negative, especially in the US market. Now it's going full circle. Now everybody's positive in the US market and negative in the international markets. They don't see the opportunity. But it's smacking you right in the face. 

Who doesn't know that Taiwan could be invaded by China, who doesn't know that the US dollar is hurting non-US assets, and who doesn't know that there's an energy crisis in Europe? Meanwhile, most of the world doesn't know right now that in the UK, the British stock market, the Footsie, is outperforming the S&P, the DOW, and the Nasdaq. It's wild to think that England has gone positive for the year because when you look at the headlines their political system is a mess and they've got higher inflation than we do. But if we all know it then it's already priced into the market. It's kind of like this, it doesn't look good in Europe. Yeah, we know. But the market's already accounted for that. 

This week on the tipping point: Anthony O’Neal dept specialist

You'll need to check out the episode to hear all the wisdom dropped by Anthony O’Neal but here's a little teaser…

"I believe that if you aim at nothing you'll hit that all the time. I believe that the caliber of your future will be determined by the caliber of goals and decisions that you make today. If you want your future to be bright, if you want your future to be wealthy, solid, fruitful, and joyful then you have to make fruitful and joyful goals and decisions today. It's important. 

When I branched out on my own about two years ago, I said, "Where am I going? What do I want to accomplish?" My very first thought is I want to be intentional, I want to be impactful, and I want to be influential. Those three things will then produce income. So that's the main thing, are my goals intentional? Are my goals, if I accomplish them, will they be impactful to others? Will it be influential? And if the answer is yes to all three of those, then income will come. You can't anywhere without goals or without a vision. Really more so vision than goals when you think about it. Because goals mean that once you hit that goal, that comes to a stop. So I love goals but also, personally, I want a vision that is ongoing that is never going to stop. I'm going to keep going as long as I'm living on this earth."

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Apple has outperformed its peers by a wide margin this year. Apple is now worth more than Microsoft and META put together combined.
  • There have been around 33,000 tech layoffs since the beginning of November. However, the economy generated something like 261,000 jobs in October and 200,000 in November. Simple math, more jobs are being created than are being lost. This doesn't sound very recessionary.
  • 10,000 baby boomers reach age 65 every day according to the US Census Bureau. And by 2030, all baby boomers will be at least 65. The Boomer labor force has been declining by 2.2 million on average each year since 2010 or about 5,900 people daily are leaving the workforce. We think this is a problem.
  • The US just passed 1 trillion music streams this year. The first time that milestone had been reached in a single year. That's about 960,000 years of streaming music so far in 2022.

Resources & People Mentioned

Anthony O’Neal debt specialist

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The Market Is Smarter Than Everybody!, Ep #105

Wednesday Nov 30, 2022

Wednesday Nov 30, 2022

What's up! It's episode 105 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy continues to chug along. We had retail spending up even with record-high inflation. We're starting to see on the ground floor inflation coming down, and unemployment is still strong, yet every economist and strategist still say we're going to fall off a cliff. We're going to address that today. We've seen a huge rally in the global markets over the course of the last couple of weeks, specifically internationally. Should you be playing that in your portfolio? Well, we're gonna break it down for you. Check it out. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Are we going to see a healthy end-of-the-year rally? [1:04]
  • The market is smarter than everybody! [4:52]
  • The ‘Yeah…but’ market [7:29]
  • The Tipping Point [11:59]
  • Paying down debt [14:55]
  • Do you readjust your portfolio? [16:04]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:58]

Emerging markets are trending!

Right now we're talking about how we don't know what's going to happen next, we don't know what's going on. But one thing I do know is what we don't expect is what's going to happen. We've seen this with what I call the pandemic hangover trade. We've seen disruptive technology, and it's still getting slaughtered here, even as markets are recovering, and I think one of the most obvious trends in the world is emerging markets. You look at the emerging markets right now, they've been growing faster than the US in terms of profits growth since like 1995, yet their stock market is in the same place it was in 2007. So there are a lot of places you can be allocating your capital right now that are dirt cheap that are poised to rise in the future.

This week on the tipping point: When to take action and when not to

When it comes to financial planning, sometimes it's good to take action, but other times it's better to maybe just hold back and let things play out. So let's talk about when you should be taking action and when you should not take action when it comes to your financial independence plan.

A point of confusion, when it comes to action or no action, is eliminating debt. It's actually a trickier conversation than it used to be because at the beginning of this year your mortgage would typically be your largest debt and you were getting a 2-3% rate depending on how long you're going out. Now you're paying like 6-7% and it really becomes a portfolio decision and with rates so much higher right now, I would say unless you're locked into a lower rate it might be better to start paying off debt and as opposed to mortgaging, maybe just paying out right if you have cash because that's a real hard spread to get over the long term if you're starting to borrow at like 6-7%. 

Another big

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • India will have the highest growth rate of all countries over the next 10 years, there are also opportunities in parts of the Middle East, and North Africa, although capital markets in these places are still very early in development, you gotta have some money around the world.
  • What do FTX, Vroom, Draft Kings, and Coinbase all have in common besides the fact they're down 62 to 98% so far this year? They all spent $6.5 million per 30 seconds for Super Bowl ads just less than a year ago.
  • Since the inception date of 8/1/2001 CNBC's Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio returned a cumulative 210%. Compare that to the S&P 500's 398%, nearly 50% better.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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If You Want To Be Wealthy You’ve Got To Be Patient, Ep #103

Wednesday Nov 09, 2022

Wednesday Nov 09, 2022

What's up! It's episode 103 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED just doesn't want us to have a good time. J Powell, again, talking extremely hawkish in its comments as we're recording this. However, we've got a hot job market, unemployment is still staying extremely low, close to a 50-year low. We just keep adding jobs and wages continue to go up as this economy is still on solid footing. Should we be rooting for a bad economy or rooting for a good economy? Well, we're going to give you our view. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about end-of-the-year tax and financial moves you can make to make sure you're on solid footing. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • The little boy who cries wolf [1:10]
  • Why stock equities are the ultimate hedge against inflation [4:41]
  • Time in the market not timing the market [7:23]
  • The Tipping Point [11:30]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [30:31]

Getting paid to wait

It's time in the markets, not timing the market. Let's just take the Federal Reserve's conference call the other day, in the course of a half hour the market went up 400 points from what was perceived as dovish comments then closed 500 points down. That's virtually a thousand-point swing, a thousand points in a period of two hours! You're gonna invest in that mess? The whole idea is that this short-term volatility tells you nothing. Trying to game it or time it is so futile, it's ridiculous. Meanwhile, when you have a diversified portfolio, you're making money every day. Your dividends accrue, your interest is accrued, you earn it, it's yours, and you get paid to wait! 

This week on the tipping point: Pro Tips for Tax Optimization 

It's the end of the year. It's coming up on tax time so this is the time to really look at your portfolio. We thought it would be a good time to talk about some of the pro moves that we use with our clients at our boutique firm Payne Capital Management, some of the strategies we use at the end of the year that our listeners can apply to their portfolio to optimize their portfolio for their financial independence. 

One of the things that we like to do towards the end of the year, especially with a volatile year as we've had, are tax swaps. Over time investments will have a lot of embedded unrealized capital gains so whenever we can do some tax loss harvesting it saves folks a lot of money on the back end. This may be the biggest year ever for tax loss harvesting. 

A few other tax strategies that are great at the end of the year that no one looks at are Roth conversions, charitable contributions from retirement accounts, and making sure that you're maxing out your retirement plan contribution.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Alibaba holding group, a data-driven colossus in retail, logistics, lending, and more has generated 89 billion in free cash flow over the past five years. The equivalent in the US would be Amazon which has only generated 75 billion over the last five years. Yet, its shares are lower than their debut price back in 2014. Alibaba's market value of $168 billion is just a sliver of Amazon's trillion dollars. There might be some opportunity in China
  • Since March gold has slid 18.3%, far worse than global stocks which are only down 8%. Gold isn't a hedge, not against inflation, stock weakness, or even war. It's a commodity.
  • Americans average financial assets amounted to 155,000 back in 2008. At the end of 2021 just last year, assets climbed to $349,000 on average, an increase of 125%. It's not only Americans who can look back on a long decade of rich monetary blessings, even around the world people are getting richer.
  • 56 years after its original release the Beetles Revolver, which is one of the greatest albums of all time, could be at #1 on the Billboard 200 album charts again thanks to the new stereo remix of the album. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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Investing Is Not A Competitive Sport!, Ep #102

Wednesday Nov 02, 2022

Wednesday Nov 02, 2022

What's up! It's episode 102 of Payne Points of Wealth and tech is dead! Our prophecy has come true. We've warned you about tech for a long time. Meanwhile, markets are rallying hard here and the economy is actually growing despite what all those economists have been telling you. Is this just a big fake-out? Is this a bear market rally? Are we going into a big recession next year? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that today. We're going to tell you exactly how to play all the market moves and how to look at the economy right now correctly. We're also going to talk about financial planning, physical training, and what they have in common. We've got a great show. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • Economists are so sus! [1:06]
  • Is the S&P overweighted in tech? [4:01]
  • You make the most $$ in a bear market [7:12]
  • The Tipping Point [12:08]
  • There is no wisdom on the internet [13:11]
  • Help to do the right thing when it feels wrong [16:03]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [21:52]

Are you missing a rally because you’re overweight in mega-cap tech stocks?

If you look at the S&P 500, it accounts for something like 25% but the entire weighting is only in six or seven stocks. That's the problem, the S&P is so grossly overweight in tech that you're not benefiting from this rally. What blew our minds looking at the numbers this past week is that old-school boring value stocks like JP Morgan, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are only down 5%, but tech growth stocks are down 30%. That's a 25% spread! 

This tells you that right now it's not about being in or out of the market, it's about having the right portfolio. If you're diversified you're not down that much this year and that's the whole point. You have to spread your risk out. The overall market is telling us that some parts of the economy aren't doing great like tech, but some parts of the economy are doing really, really well. It's like we are experiencing rolling recessions, not an all-or-none proposition.

This week on the tipping point: Financial Fitness Trainers

There are a lot of principles that we can apply from the fitness world to your retirement or financial independence plan. What we've learned in our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, is that our role as financial advisors is a lot like being a personal financial trainer.

The similarities are remarkable. You definitely work out better when you have a personal trainer. You get in shape faster and you have less injury because they get you to focus on every part of your body. They don't limit you to what you would limit yourself to. That's what happens when you're investing. "Well, I'm not gonna invest in that area because I lost money there once." or "I'm a brave investor, I'm going to roll the dice and go a hundred percent in crypto or the arc fund." You make a lot of mistakes because you don't know what you don't know. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • John Deere and Company has 50 autonomous tractors in its global testing fleet but intends to ramp up commercial production next year.
  • Money funds are now paying a lot more than bank savings accounts, which yield an average of 1.09% according to bankrate.com. Fidelity's tax-exempt money market fund may be the best bet if you're in a high tax bracket, it pays 1.75%, which is the equivalent of getting 3.43% if you're in a high tax bracket. That's not bad for money just sitting in cash.
  • Renewable energy could account for 60% of power generation in Western Europe and 35% in the US by the year 2030. Up from 35% and 23% today, respectively. Ironically, high fossil fuel prices are the biggest reason that energy producers have the ability to fund the energy transition to cleaner alternatives.
  • Schwab generated 132 million off money market funds in the third quarter up from 29 million a year ago when the company had to issue waivers to compensate for ultra-low money market yields. It's incredible how much yields have gone up in the last couple of months.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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The Dirty Secret Of The Financial Industry, Ep #101

Friday Oct 28, 2022

Friday Oct 28, 2022

What's up! It's episode 101 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is not so bad. Bank earnings looking relatively strong. Everything's still in the backdrop of what is the FED going to do. Are they going to keep raising interest rates? Are they going to pause? Are they going to start lowering interest rates? Nobody really knows. Meanwhile, the market's like a rollercoaster ride up one day and down the next. It can't really find any footing and uncertainty is high. Russia is still in invasion of Ukraine. Sounds like Xi Jinping is the ultimate ruler forever of China. It's a crazy world. We're going to give you our thoughts on exactly what's going on in the economy, what's going on in the stock market, the ying and yangs, everyday moves, and how to play it. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about how every investor on Wall Street gets treated the same. No matter how much money you have, it's bad. We're going to explain why. Check it out.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • What’s going on in the mind of J. Powell? [1:24]
  • Bad is good and good is bad [4:21]
  • You gotta be in to win [8:22]
  • The Tipping Point [12:57]
  • The dirty secret of our industry [14:19]
  • The sexiest investments [17:19]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [22:35]

Nobody can predict what's unknowable

We're at a point in the market where good news is bad news and bad news is good news and then there's a little mixed bag of both. You have a GDP number coming out this week and some economists say it may be very, very strong. They've been a little weaker than they were last quarter, but they're still positive. Then you get these rip-your-face-off rallies from companies when they come in with really decent earnings. Lamb research came in the other day with decent earnings, really good earnings stock going from 300 to 370 in one week. The same thing happened with Lockheed Martin. 

The problem with trying to time the market is that you can get on the sidelines and wait for the good news, but the good news happens, you can't get back in. So it's one of these cases where we're in a corrective phase of the market and it's going to stay a corrective phase until the FED stops. That may very well be happening right now but nobody can predict what's unknowable. 

This week on the tipping point: Wall Street treats every investor the same

We've been looking at a lot of cases over the course of the last couple weeks at our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, and we see every strategy under the sun. As we analyze portfolios, we look at all the underlying investments and the thing that blows my mind is it doesn't matter if you have $10 million or $10,000 Wall Street treats you the same. They sell you the same high-cost tax-inefficient products. It doesn't even matter how much money you have. It's kind of criminal and it's important as you build your net worth to make sure you're not constantly being treated like a retail investor.

It all comes down to the fiduciary rule. When President Obama proposed the fiduciary rule for the financial services industry, it was amazing. Banks, Wall Street firms, and insurance companies all fought it because they don't want to act in the investor's best interest, they wanna act in a shareholder's best interest. If you're ever going to invest with a wirehouse or a bank and insurance company, it's better to buy their stock because they're working in the best interest of the shareholder. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter for $54.20 a share is at a price that is double the current valuation of Twitter's main rivals Meta and Snap. In line with Meta and Snap Musk should be paying more like $24 per share for Twitter. No wonder why he fought so hard to get out of this deal.
  • The current rise in mortgage rates has real consequences. The $1,900 a month payment on a $450,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 3% can only support now a $300,000 loan at six and a half percent interest rates.
  • The only two bands that have surpassed the $2 billion sales mark for concert ticket sales in their history are the Rolling Stones and U2.
  • Stock prices aren't great at predicting recessions. The market provided a 1 month advance notice for the 2001 recession. It was 3 months late in its warning of the 1973 recession and 8 months late in the 2008 recession. False warnings came in 1962, 1977, and 1987. Sounds like the market's not really great at predicting economic downfall.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Read more

Come on Jerome Powel…PIVOT!, Ep #100

Thursday Oct 13, 2022

Thursday Oct 13, 2022

What's up? It's episode 100 of Payne Points of Wealth. It's hard to believe it's been two years already! We've got unemployment still at the lowest levels in 50 years. We've got wages going up, and we've got an employment market that just won't cool off. What's the FED going to do? Will they finally pivot or are they ready to take this economy off a cliff? Are we going to a deep recession depression? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly how to play the economy, play the strong dollar, play the higher interest rates, play the conflict in Russia. There are so many issues, I can't name them all. On the Tipping Point we're going to talk about financial planning red flags. You're on your path to financial independence so what red flags do you need to avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to reach your goals? 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • The FED pivot is coming sooner than later [1:37]
  • What’s different and what are you doing to change it [4:27]
  • Inflation is clearly coming down [6:23]
  • The Tipping Point [9:36]
  • Can you name all the investments in your portfolio off the top of your head? [10:37]
  • How often are you in contact with your advisor? [14:23]
  • Do you know how much income you need? [16:42]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [20:59]

A pivot is coming!

People keep saying everything's down. What we are seeing are mortgage rates up and housing prices up and even though they're down a little bit now they are still way up from where they were three years ago. Employment is up, the dollar is up, and interest rates are up. There are a lot of things that are up that we don't want to have up, but eventually, they will turn. 

Here's the thing, the market's been extraordinarily volatile, and reasonably so, sentiment is incredibly negative. If you're negative right now, you're in good company. It's one of the worst sentiment readings we've ever seen in history. It's all because of Jerome Powell. We're waiting for him to pivot. Will he? Eventually, sure. Look what happened the first half of this year, we went into a bear market and then July hit. We had one of the best months in the history of the stock market in the month of July because the market was thinking we were going to see a FED pivot. When it will come we don't know, but we're closer to it now than we've ever been. Keep the faith. Stay invested. It's coming. 

This week on the tipping point: Red flags to address in your financial plan.

Let’s talk about some of the red flags that we see week after week that you need to make sure you're addressing in your own financial planning.

First, can you name all the investments in your portfolio off the top of your head? If you can, chances are you're not very well diversified. Having millions in one target fund is NOT diversification. 

Another red flag, how often do you hear from your financial advisor? But more importantly, how often do you meet with your financial advisor to do your annual financial physical? If you aren't in communication with your advisor, you are not getting the advice you need to have the best portfolio for your unique needs. 

One more red flag for today. When it comes to your financial plan do you even know how much income you need? We find this is the baseline whenever we start the planning process. One of the first things we look at is just getting an idea of your expenses. No one likes to look at them because we know we all spend on things we shouldn't and we're afraid to see it. But man, oh man, it's so therapeutic to just get a clear idea of what you're spending on a monthly and annual basis. And from there you can solve a lot of your financial problems, but you've got to start there.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Europe is home to over 500 million people with GDP equal to 25% of the world's output in 2021. That's slightly greater than the US, which is about 24% of all global output and greater than China's 18%. You can't write off Europe.
  • US energy exports to Europe surged to 43 billion in the first half of 2022. An increase over 190% from a year ago. The energy crisis getting real in Europe.
  • Apple launched production of its new iPhone 14 in the India city of Chene. It is predicted a quarter of the world's iPhones will be assembled in India by 2025 up from just 3% today.
  • The villa called Casa del Soul, a mansion built on Dubai's, Palm Jamira Island fetched 82.4 million when it was sold in July, the most expensive home ever to be sold in the Persian Gulf Emirate.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Read more

Luck, Strategy, Or A Little Bit Of Both, Ep #99

Wednesday Oct 05, 2022

Wednesday Oct 05, 2022

What's up? It's episode 99 of Payne Points of Wealth and there is no good news. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. The FED continues to talk tough and interest rates are skyrocketing. There is a threat of nuclear war in Eastern Europe. As usual, we're going to break it down for you today and talk about our views on where everything is going. Are we going to have this huge recession that we're hearing about week after week? On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about roulette, chess, and poker and what they have to do with your financial life. Go have a listen!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • If it weren’t for mistakes the FED wouldn’t make any decisions [1:03]
  • Only things going up are yields and inflation [3:51]
  • Having a Revenge of the Nerds portfolio [6:55]
  • The Tipping Point [10:40]
  • To pay taxes or not to pay? [13:55]
  • Playing stock picking roulette [17:27]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [20:58]

Finally seeing real, positive, yields!

The only thing going up this year has been inflation and short-term money market yields. As financial advisors and planners, we're in a position where we have portfolios that we can actually sink our teeth into. 

You have forward earnings at about 16 times, which means stocks are valued where they are in the average PE ratio. You have bond yields that are significant, where there’s a decent return in our intermediate bond portfolio and there's great opportunity. We were more concerned in January when we saw interest rates at zero than we are today. Now we know we can generate the income, generate the total return, that we need to help all of our clients overcome unexpected inflation and taxes to achieve their financial goals.

We don't wanna have a portfolio that's cool. We want to have a portfolio that's like the revenge of the nerds, and that is the kind of market we have now! Yes, having bonds that come due, how boring. I love it! Having dividend stocks that increase their dividend every year. How boring. I love it! That's where we have to be. The key is you have to take action. If you have losses, do some tax swaps because you want to put money in the loss bank. We are taught as children to put money in the piggy bank, put some money in the loss bank, there will be gains in the future.

This week on the tipping point: Chess, poker, or roulette?

Today we compare some different strategies that we see deployed in the financial world to chess, poker, and roulette. Rollette is basically luck and how the dice roll. If it's chess, it's a real strategy. And poker we'd say is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of strategy. 

The first strategy that we see deployed a lot in our industry is market timing. Another strategy that we see is deciding how much money to convert from an IRA to a Roth IRA where the money is tax-free for the rest of your life. The other one that comes up, especially when we're doing our annual reviews, is deciding on when to retire. What's the date in the future that you're going to definitively say, okay, I'm done, I'm going to live off my portfolio. The last strategy we compare is going to be picking stocks. Which of these strategies is comparable to which game? Check out the episode to find out!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • At some point in late 2022, the 8 billionth human being will enter the world ushering in a new milestone for humanity. In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion people.
  • 12% of bosses surveyed by Microsoft say workers are just as productive working remotely compared to 87% of workers who argue they are more productive. Sounds like bosses want you back in the office.
  • The original handwritten lyrics for David Bowie's Starman have been sold to an unidentified Aussie bidder at auction for $224,000. That's a lot of money for a bunch of lyrics written on a piece of paper. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


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The Greatly Exaggerated Death Of The Consumer, Ep #98

Thursday Sep 29, 2022

Thursday Sep 29, 2022

What's up? It's episode 98 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's officially apocalypse now! The FED will not relent with interest rates. They're going to be more hawkish than ever. It seems like bad news comes on the installment plan, Putin is looking to double down on his war in Ukraine. Is this the end? Is everything going to fall off a cliff? We're going to give you our view today, we're going to tell you exactly what we think you should be doing right now with your money to make sure that you're in the best position given so much uncertainty. You, awesome podcast listeners, have been asking a lot of questions so on the Tipping Point we are going to answer some of those. You can't miss episode 98. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • The stock market isn’t a video game [1:08]
  • Two things you can never discount [4:18]
  • Being properly prepared for a difficult year [8:12]
  • The Tipping Point [10:20]
  • Having ETFs in a taxable account [11:31]
  • The problem with a total market ETF [15:03]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37]

The death of the consumer is greatly exaggerated

There are two things that get discounted way too much when it comes to being an investor. 

First is American business. Even this year, as we've seen supply chains that are a mess, inflation's been a mess but companies have been able to navigate it relatively well. We've seen more surprises in the positive, not the negative, when it comes to things like earnings. 

The second thing that you can't discount is the American's ability to spend. I don't care what anybody says, if you look at retail sales last month, even with 8% inflation, retail sales were up. People were still spending and not just on necessities. They were going to restaurants, they were buying clothes. The bottom line is the death of the consumer is always greatly exaggerated.

This week on the tipping point: Listener Q&A

Our industry tends to come with plenty of cookie-cutter advice so we get a lot of questions because our expertise lies in the planning component of managing wealth. At PCM we focus on customized financial planning. Well, we have a new place where you can submit your questions and we'll answer them here right on the show. Head over to bebullish.com and ask us anything you'd like to hear us talk about on the show.

Today we are answering two questions that have to do with ETFs. The first is from John asking if we recommend ETFs or exchange-traded funds with an expense of 0.25% or even 0.39%? The second question is from Brian who asks if the S&P is so highly weighted with FANG stocks, what's another good total market ETF to invest in during a period of rising rates? Listen now to hear our answers to these great questions!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Since 1926 the S&P 500 was positive 71 of those 96 years. On a probability basis, the market goes up 74% of the time. That's pretty good odds.
  • According to bank rate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a poultry 0.13%. Ouch. Meanwhile, one-year treasury bond pays over 4%.
  • Pink Floyd's, The Dark Side Of The Moon, hit number one on the Billboard Album Chart for exactly one week in 1973. It has since gone on to sell 45 million copies and has spent 960 weeks on the charts.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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Are we heading from fear to FOMO?, Ep #97

Wednesday Sep 21, 2022

Wednesday Sep 21, 2022

What's up! It's episode 97 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are melting down. The fear is real, but could this fear go from fear to FOMO? We're going to discuss exactly what's going on. As we're recording this FedEx saw its stock drop 20%, and the CEO thinks that the world is going into a global recession. We might have a different point of view. We'll talk about that. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about some of the most significant strategy mistakes that Wall Street loves to push on you that you should avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

  • What side of the rip of your face rally will you be on? [1:25]
  • Is it light at the end of the tunnel or a train? [3:52]
  • Time to load up on the municipal bond market [8:15]
  • The Tipping Point [11:21]
  • Are you taking actions that you'll regret forever? [14:09]
  • Hidden Facts of Finance [18:53]

Betting on a sure thing?

Is it time to load up on the municipal bond market? The way these governments keep spending money on state, local, and federal levels it's only a matter of time before they try to jack up our tax rates again. We've got to look at the advantages of tax-free income. 

First of all, you want to be certain that you have a portfolio with permits and definitions. We want to know what we're making and when our money comes due. But when you look at the equivalent yield of a tax-free bond right now, in some cases, depending on your state income tax, you're getting anywhere from a 5 - 8% return. How much return do you need to achieve all your lifetime goals? If you can do it with more certainty, why not? 

This week on the tipping point: Strategy mistakes

During times when it's very volatile and uncertain in the markets, like right now, there are a lot of strategies that Wall Street loves to sell you. We know from experience that they just don't work. We can't time the market and a lot of people tend to project the future based on their most recent experience. When there are all-time record highs, like the markets just had this past January, nobody wants to panic out. You only want to panic or time the market when the market's are down and you feel like it will only continue to get worse. 

The problem is you end up taking actions that you'll regret forever. You wouldn't believe how many folks out there have liquidated their portfolio and gone into something like an annuity. We've been analyzing more annuities the past three months than ever. It's kind of like going back into the arms of an ex, it feels comfortable, it feels good, but the reality is you broke up for a reason. You're not going to get what you're looking for from the relationship!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

  • Wedbush Securities estimates that there are now a billion iPhones worldwide, 240 million of which are at least 3-1/2 years old. This may explain why Apple earnings are expected to continue creeping higher by single-digit percentages in the years ahead.
  • We think of meme stocks as something unique, but the 1960s were called the Go-go 60s' for a reason. The Nifty 50, the glamor stocks, the concept stocks, the conglomerates, and the gunslinger fund managers who touted them were rock stars. When the Nifty 50 expired in the early 70s' they had sky-high valuations that rival anything we've seen today with Xerox trading at 49 times forward earnings, Avon at 65 times forward earnings, and Polaroid at 90 times forward earnings. History may not repeat, but markets are made up of people and they certainly do.
  • Dividends have accounted for 40% of stock market returns since 1930 and 54% during decades when inflation has been high like today. When inflation has been high, the stocks that have increased their dividends the most have outperformed the overall market. Dividend payments help make the stock market returns less volatile.
  • The average German household is paying nearly 13 times more for power than in January of 2020, or about $38,000 versus $3000. Wow. That's a huge jump in energy prices.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris


Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth
On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

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